I change my mind every 15 minutes about whether I feel optimistic or pessimistic about the election. The bottom line is, we don’t know anything. We don’t know if turnout models are accurate and if there will be a MAGA surge or a youth surge. We don’t know what Latino turnout and vote preference will look like in Florida, South Texas, the Southwest, and more. We don’t know if post-Dobbs momentum will continue or if gas prices will spike again. We don’t know what the strong early vote numbers portend or if polls are accurate. Basically, if a race is consistently within five points, assume it’s in play and leave it all out on the field.
Scroll to the end for my Election Night watch list (key races by poll closing times) and other resources to dork out. And you can access my key races tracking database here.
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For a supposedly slow month, August has been chock-full of news -- and most of it is good! Women, Democrats, and independents turned out in droves to defeat a constitutional amendment to allow an abortion ban in Kansas. Democratic voter registration is outpacing Republicans in key states post-Dobbs. Democrats over-performed in several special elections to the US House, including winning an upset race in NY-18 just last night (yay, Pat Ryan!). Inflation and gas prices are down; unemployment reached record lows in dozens of states. And Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, ushering in the largest investment ever in climate change abatement. Polls are moving in Democrats’ favor -- the generic ballot is even, President Biden’s approval rating is ticking up, and Democratic candidates in toss-up statewide races are inching ahead of their Republican opponents.
Lest we forget, polls are a snapshot in time and margins of error are real. And we have 75 days until the election -- a lifetime in politics. But we should take this wind at our backs and work like crazy to win up and down the ballot. Our rights, our democracy, and our planet depend on it.
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People said we were hysterical, that they would never overreach. The Court wasn’t on the line in 2016. But we knew. We knew the Right had a forty-year plan to overturn Roe and the three Justices appointed by President Trump would make their plan a reality.
We knew -- and we planned. There’s not a lot we can do to prevent this decision and the huge state implications. But as a proud Board member of Planned Parenthood of the Rocky Mountains Action Fund and Planned Parenthood Federation Action Fund, the abortion rights movement has a plan and we’re executing it, albeit a few weeks earlier than we thought.
Below please find information on key state races as well as key organizations and how to get involved in the fight to save abortion access. With everything on the line, this is not a moment to care about tax deductions. Give hard money to candidates and c4 dollars to organizations.
You can refer to this handy map to review existing restrictions and where abortion is likely to be outlawed if/when Roe is overturned. Bans Off Our Bodies has comprehensive information as well.
Crooked Media (aka the Pod Save America folks) has a great website where you can learn where to give and how to volunteer: https://votesaveamerica.com/roe/
And finally: Save the Date! On May 14, we rally. Think Women’s March-style protests around the country. Find a rally near you.
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