I change my mind every 15 minutes about whether I feel optimistic or pessimistic about the election. The bottom line is, we don’t know anything. We don’t know if turnout models are accurate and if there will be a MAGA surge or a youth surge. We don’t know what Latino turnout and vote preference will look like in Florida, South Texas, the Southwest, and more. We don’t know if post-Dobbs momentum will continue or if gas prices will spike again. We don’t know what the strong early vote numbers portend or if polls are accurate. Basically, if a race is consistently within five points, assume it’s in play and leave it all out on the field.

Scroll to the end for my Election Night watch list (key races by poll closing times) and other resources to dork out. And you can access my key races tracking database here.