I change my mind every 15 minutes about whether I feel optimistic or pessimistic about the election. The bottom line is, we don’t know anything. We don’t know if turnout models are accurate and if there will be a MAGA surge or a youth surge. We don’t know what Latino turnout and vote preference will look like in Florida, South Texas, the Southwest, and more. We don’t know if post-Dobbs momentum will continue or if gas prices will spike again. We don’t know what the strong early vote numbers portend or if polls are accurate. Basically, if a race is consistently within five points, assume it’s in play and leave it all out on the field.
Scroll to the end for my Election Night watch list (key races by poll closing times) and other resources to dork out. And you can access my key races tracking database here.
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Let’s get out the crystal ball. One year from now, the Democratic and Republican conventions will be over. We will have a Democratic nominee and a Vice-Presidential candidate. Strategies will crystalize as we narrow down the states in play. Turnout operations kick into high gear (although — fingers crossed! — voter contact programs have been funded and running in key states for the better part of a year, if not longer). We are looking forward to the first general election debate (assuming our authoritarian President actually deigns to debate, and more than once).
How do we ensure we are in the best possible position to take advantage of the upcoming year, not only for the presidential election but critical Senate, House, and state and local races?
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OK, I’m putting it out there: I predict Democrats will net 37 House seats, 1 Senate seat (for a 50/50 split) and 10 Governorships. I think it will be a be a good night for Democrats. It could be a VERY good night. And I can’t even think about a bad night. See more details below.
(You can also read this on Medium)
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