Where to Give Now: October 2022
I change my mind every 15 minutes about whether I feel optimistic or pessimistic about the election. The bottom line is, we don’t know anything. We don’t know if turnout models are accurate and if there will be a MAGA surge or a youth surge. We don’t know what Latino turnout and vote preference will look like in Florida, South Texas, the Southwest, and more. We don’t know if post-Dobbs momentum will continue or if gas prices will spike again. We don’t know what the strong early vote numbers portend or if polls are accurate. Basically, if a race is consistently within five points, assume it’s in play and leave it all out on the field.
Scroll to the end for my Election Night watch list (key races by poll closing times) and other resources to dork out. And you can access my key races tracking database here.
US Senate
We have reached the point in the cycle where more money is not necessarily helpful (See: KY, ME, SC 2020). But North Carolina has been relatively under the radar and it has numerous media markets so additional funds are actually helpful for Cheri Beasley.
They are throwing the kitchen sink at Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin and John Fetterman in Pennsylvania so a little more helps there too.
Give to all or some: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senate. The federal max is $2,900 per candidate per election. If you have already maxed to any of these candidates, consider donations to their Victory Funds, in conjunction with state parties; the maximum is $10,000 each.
US House
There are approximately 30 true toss-up races. Of those, approximately half are challengers, open seats, or new seats and more likely to need last-minute funding. Q3 fundraising numbers were just published and here are the most competitive races that can use additional resources.
Top races:
Rudy Salas (CA-22)
Christy Smith (CA-27)
Yadira Caraveo (CO-8)
Annette Taddeo (FL-27)
Eric Sorenson (IL-17)
Monica Tranel (MT-2)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-2)
Pat Ryan (NY-19)
Val Hoyle (OR-4)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3)
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/housedems2022
Governor and Other State Races
Non-federal races remain largely underfunded. These races have huge implications for 2022, 2024, and beyond. In many states, there are numerous statewide opportunities.
Top statewide needs:
Katie Hobbs (AZ) faces a true dead-even race against election denier Kari Lake. Max $5300.
Three-fer: The Attorney General and Secretary of State races are also very competitive, featuring Democrats Kris Mayes and Adrian Fontes, respectively.
Gov. Laura Kelly (KS) faces Attorney General Derek Schmidt. Kelly has strong favorability ratings and the abortion ballot measure galvanized Democrats but Kansas remains a red state. Max $2000.
Gov. Steve Sisolak (NV) has a tough re-election as the fundamentals on the ground are tough; Nevada was hit very hard by COVID with the downturn in the economy and tourism and Latino voters are less motivated to vote. He faces Joe Lombardo, the former Clark County Sheriff, who has made crime his primary issue. Max $5000.
Three-fer: The Attorney General and Secretary of State races are also very competitive here, featuring Democrats Aaron Ford, an incumbent, and Cisco Aguilar, respectively.
Tina Kotek (OR), the former Oregon Speaker of the House, has an extremely close three-way race against Republican Christine Drazen and former Democrat turned independent Betsy Johnson. Johnson is well-funded and nominally pro-choice, complicating what should have been an easy protect. No limits.
Gov. Tony Evers (WI) is the last line of defense for democracy in Wisconsin against Republican majorities in the state legislature. Republican Tim Michels is running as a businessman and outsider. Max $20,000.
Two-fer: Incumbent Attorney General Josh Kaul is also in a tight race.
Give to all crucial statewides: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/save-democracy-2022
Get Out The Vote (501c3 and 501c4)
There are very few opportunities for effective 501c3 giving this late in the cycle. There are three very scalable -- and fun! -- programs.
Party at the Polls: a project of When We All Vote (the organization founded by Michelle Obama and housed at Civic Nation) makes early and Election Day voting fun through get out the vote parties in key communities. Their goal is to host 200 parties, targeting 4.3 million people of color and young voters in 2022 with follow-up texts. An independent study found that Parties at the Polls add 1-4% to turnout. To donate, give online or contact Seth Beer, seth.beer@civicnation.org.
Pizza to the Polls feeds democracy! They organize food trucks, snacks, and yes, pizza, to encourage voting and help votes stay in line (where legal; looking at you, Georgia!). If you see a long line, you can text or Tweet at them and they’ll find local food. You can give online or email Lee Kornfeld, lee@polls.pizza.
VoteAmerica’s campus text-to-register program is imminently scalable and costs approximately $1 per new voter registered. They primarily target 18-22 year-old college voters as well as 18-25 year-old non-college voters. In many states, you can register right up to or on Election Day and they also text non-partisan get out the vote messages to people they register. Give online or contact Emma Kraus, emma@voteamerica.com.
Large 501c4 gaps remain in most key battleground states, particularly for field (canvassing, phone bank, text bank) efforts. The biggest gaps at the state level are in Arizona, Florida, and Ohio. All are large states with significant Latino/a populations, young voters, and/or non-college voters who need additional communication ahead of November. Additionally, Montana and Ohio have critical state supreme court races where abortion rights ar at stake and Kentucky has a winnable (!) abortion ballot measure. For security reasons, I will not list all of the organizations and gaps here. If you are interested in providing c4 funding to any of these efforts, please email me as soon as possible and I can connect you to the state-based entities.
As always, America Votes is the easy button. Give online here. For larger donations or to target your donation of $5,000+ to a particular state, email Evan Kost, ekost@americavotes.org.
Additionally, the Alliance for Youth Action needs $1,858,000 for youth-focused GOTV efforts in GA, NV, and PA. Somos Votantes needs $2,100,000 to help Latino voters access tested and culturally competent voting information across numerous states.
Election Night Tracker
I compiled a list of how states vote, when polls close, when they process and count ballots, and bellwether races. Here are the top I’ll be watching that may be called relatively quickly (all poll closing times EST):
7:00pm -- Indiana (four weeks of early voting; request required to vote absentee; can process and count before polls close). Does incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan’s race in IN-1 get called quickly one way or the other?
7:00pm -- Georgia (three weeks of early voting; no excuse required for absentee; can process and count before polls close). GA-2 should be an easy win for Democrats. Does the Governor’s race go to a runoff? Are the Governor and/or US Senate races called quickly? What about Secretary of State and Attorney General?
7:00pm -- Virginia (six weeks of early voting; no excuse required to vote absentee; can process and count before polls close; known for efficient elections and quick reporting). VA-2, VA-7, VA-10. All feature Democratic women incumbents, with Elaine Luria in VA-2 among the most endangered incumbents in the country. If Dems win all, the US House is still in play. If Abigail Spanberger loses, expect a big Republican wave.
7:30pm -- North Carolina (three weeks of early voting; no excuse required for absentee; can process and count before polls close). US Senate, NC-1, NC-13. An early win in any, especially US Senate, could foretell a good night for Democrats.
7:30pm -- Ohio (counties have discretion to set voting hours, including early voting; no excuse required for absentee; can process and count before polls close). It is unlikely we will know close races on Election Night. US Senate, OH-1, OH-9, OH-13 are all competitive.
8:00pm -- Illinois (five weeks of early voting; no excuse required to vote absentee; can process but not count before polls close). IL-13, IL-14, IL-17. If Dems win all, the US House is still in play.
8:00pm -- New Hampshire (excuse required for early voting; excuse required for absentee; in-person returns come fairly quickly). US Senate, NH-1, NH-2. Dems should win all.
8:00pm -- Pennsylvania (early voting varies by county but four weeks in most large counties; wide array of excuses allowed but required for absentee; can process and count before polls close). US Senate, PA-7, PA-8, PA-17 will be close; Governor should be called quickly.
Others at 8:00pm: CT-5, FL-27, ME-2, NJ-7, RI-2. Florida Governor and Senate. Maine Governor. Minnesota Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State.
Dems need to win 12 of 14: CT-5, GA-2, IL-13, IL-14, IN-1, ME-2, NH-1, NH-2, NC-1, PA-7, PA-8, RI-2, VA-7, VA-10 for a shot at keeping the US House.
9:00pm -- Arizona (three weeks of early voting; no excuse required for absentee; can process and count before polls close). The US Senate race should be called quickly. Can Democratic incumbent Tom O’Halleran eek out a win in AZ-2? Can Dems flip AZ-1? The Governor’s race should be extremely close; an early call for either might be a tell. Also watch Secretary of State and Attorney General.
9:00pm -- Colorado (automatic mail ballot for every voter; can process and count before Election Day; known for efficient elections and quick counting). The Governor’s race should be called quickly. Dems should win US Senate and CO-7. CO-8 should be close.
9:00pm -- Kansas (three weeks of early voting; no excuse required for absentee; can process and count before polls close). Governor and KS-3 are toss-ups with a slight thump on the scale for Democrats in KS-3.
9:00pm -- Michigan (six weeks of early voting; no excuse required to vote absentee; can process and count before polls close). The Governor’s race should be called quickly. MI-3, MI-7, MI-8, and MI-10 are all competitive. Dems need to win at least three for the US House to be in play. Also watch Secretary of State and Attorney General.
9:00pm -- New York (two weeks of early voting; excuse required for absentee; can process and count before polls close). The Governor’s race should be called quickly. NY-18, NY-19, NY-22 are all very competitive.
Others at 9:00pm -- IA-3, MN-2, NE-2, NM-2, TX-15, TX-28, TX-34. New Mexico Governor. Texas Governor. Wisconsin Senate and Governor (It is unlikely we will know WI results on Election Night).
Dems need to win 12 of 14: CO-7, KS-3, IA-3, MI-3, MI-7, MI-8, MN-2, NE-2, NM-2, NY-18, NY-19, TX-15, TX-28, TX-34.
10:00pm -- Nevada (automatic mail ballot for every voter; three weeks early voting; can process and count before polls close). US Senate, Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and NV-3 will all be very close. If NV-1 and NV-4 are called for Dems, it is a good sign.
Others at 10:00pm -- MT-2, Utah Senate. Both are longer-shots but winnable.
11:00pm -- California (automatic mail ballot for every voter; four weeks early voting; can process and count before polls close). CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-47, and CA-49 are all varying degrees of competitive with CA-22 as a national bellwether.
11:00pm -- Oregon (automatic mail ballot for every voter; can process and count before polls close). The Governors race will be very close as will OR-5 and OR-6.
Others at or after 11:00pm -- WA-8, AK-AL. If OR-4 is called for the Republican, it will be a rough night in Oregon.
Dems need to win 9 of 10: AK-AL, CA-13, CA-22, CA-47, OR-5, OR-6, NV-1, NV-3, NV-4, and WA-8 to keep the US House.
Check out the Voting tab on the tracking database for more information.
If you are not on Twitter, Election Night is the reason to join and lurk. You can follow my Election Data Dorks list for outlets and prognosticators who follow and call races. The National Association of Secretaries of State also has a list of Chief Election Officials for links and live results. The AP Politics feed and, of course, Dave Wasserman’s famous “I’ve seen enough” tweets often call races before other outlets.
And here is my annual list of What I Consume:
Tipsheets & media newsletters
Politico | Playbook AM, Politico Nightly, West Wing Playbook, Women Rule
Punchbowl News AM & PM
Meet the Press | First Read
Axios AM & PM
Hotline’s Wake Up Call
Daily Kos Elections | Morning Digest
Decision Desk HQ
Axios Denver
What A Day
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
The Cook Political Report*
Inside Elections
Puck | The Daily Courant*
The 19th Weekly
Other newsletters
Hacks on Tap
Data for Progress
Bolts Mag
Blue Tent
Democracy Docket
Democracy Labs
The 19th Weekly
The Research Collaborative
Mike Podhorzer’s Defend Our Country Digest*
Patriotic Millionaires | Weekly Roundup
Change Research | The Top Line
CAFE Insider*
Campaigns & Elections
Molly Jung-Fast’s Wait, What?
Substack Newsletters*
Dan Pfeiffer, The Message Box
Matthew Ygelasias, Slow Boring
FWIW
Sam Wang, Sam’s Newsletter
Amanda Litman, RFS Feel Good Update
Podcasts
Pod Save America
Lovett or Leave It
FiveThirtyEight Politics
The Chuck Toddcast
Hacks on Tap
The Downballot
The Brown Girls Guide to Politics
Battleground
Campaign HQ
Get More Smarter (CO)
* denotes paid subscription or invite-only
As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out.