Where to Give Now: August 2022
For a supposedly slow month, August has been chock-full of news -- and most of it is good! Women, Democrats, and independents turned out in droves to defeat a constitutional amendment to allow an abortion ban in Kansas. Democratic voter registration is outpacing Republicans in key states post-Dobbs. Democrats over-performed in several special elections to the US House, including winning an upset race in NY-18 just last night (yay, Pat Ryan!). Inflation and gas prices are down; unemployment reached record lows in dozens of states. And Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, ushering in the largest investment ever in climate change abatement. Polls are moving in Democrats’ favor -- the generic ballot is even, President Biden’s approval rating is ticking up, and Democratic candidates in toss-up statewide races are inching ahead of their Republican opponents.
Lest we forget, polls are a snapshot in time and margins of error are real. And we have 75 days until the election -- a lifetime in politics. But we should take this wind at our backs and work like crazy to win up and down the ballot. Our rights, our democracy, and our planet depend on it.
US Senate
It is somewhat surprising how little the US Senate map has changed over the last 20 months. The major races are still the major races. Perhaps the most important difference is in, as Mitch McConnell said euphemistically, “candidate quality.”
In Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Republicans nominated candidates with serious issues (see: China’s air and crudite). In Nevada and North Carolina, more MAGA-aligned candidates have also given Democrats a better-than-expected opportunity. And in New Hampshire -- widely seen as one of the most competitive races at the start of the cycle -- Republicans couldn’t even find a top candidate. All of this, plus excellent candidates in Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin and a shot in Utah, put Democrats' chances of keeping the Senate at 63%, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. The only surprise in the other direction has been in my home state of Colorado, where a more “moderate” (ie, not totally crazy) self-funder won the Republican primary and where we will need to spend resources to solidify a win.
For brevity, I am grouping somewhat similar races together:
NV: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto remains in a category unto herself as the most endangered incumbent. She needs additional resources and this will be a nail-biter. This is much more due to the politics of Nevada than her as a candidate; everything up and down the ballot will be close there.
WI: With a late primary and facing a well-financed incumbent, Mandela Barnes is the top challenger in need of additional funds. Sen. Ron Johnson is completely out of the mainstream for a purple state like Wisconsin but don’t count him out; remember, he won in an upset in 2016.
AZ (Sen. Mark Kelly), GA (Sen. Raphael Warnock), PA (John Fetterman): These candidates are well-financed and in good shape but we could lose any of these races and they need exorbitant amounts of money to win.
CO (Sen. Michael Bennet), NH (Sen. Maggie Hassan): These incumbents should win but need additional funds in states with expensive media markets.
FL (Val Demings), OH (Tim Ryan), NC (Cheri Beasley): We need everything to go our way to win any of these Republican-leaning states. But all three races are within the margin of error, according to recent polls. All three states are also extremely expensive, as they cover many media markets.
UT: Evan McMullin may pull off a huge upset. He is a former Republican turned independent endorsed by the Democratic Party. Sen. Mike Lee turned into a huge Trump and MAGA supporter, not a popular position in Utah. McMullin took 21% of the vote in Utah in the 2020 presidential election; that, combined with votes from Democrats and independents, is enough to win.
In short, Cortez Masto and Barnes need money the most urgently. Kelly, Warnock, and Fetterman along with Bennet and Hassan are safer bets but definitely need additional funds whereas Demings, Ryan, and Beasley are tougher bets who also need additional funds. And McMullin is the long-shot bet that could pay off 100:1 (to belabor the betting metaphor).
Give to all or some: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senate. The federal max is $2,900 per candidate per election. If you have already maxed to any of these candidates, consider donations to their Victory Funds, in conjunction with state parties; the maximum is $10,000 each.
US House
Here’s what we know about US House races -- they are much more subject to the national trends. Most candidates don’t have the brand or money to break through today’s partisan divides. Because of the slight Republican tilt post-redistricting, Democrats likely need to be up 4-5 points in the generic ballot to keep the House. But there are 22 competitive districts than are more Democratic than NY-19, where Democrats won the special election last night.
Prognosticators still believe Republicans will take the majority but I have been a broken record in stressing that there’s a big difference between a 5-seat and a 25-seat majority -- both for our ability to retake the majority in 2024 and for their ability to govern (the #CrazyCaucus is real). There are 14 pure toss-up races; 18 toss-up/Lean D; and 9 toss-up/Lean R (with the caveat that some prognosticators differ greatly but this is a rough average).
The vast majority of toss-up races are Democratic incumbents (in bold) but there are also a handful of new or open seat races that we can pick-up (denoted with *). Any of the candidates listed below are worthy of investment. This late, I prioritize races in states without a competitive race at the top of the ticket (CA, CT, IL, NJ, NY, TX, VA) as well as states that do not have a strong fundraising base (IN, IA, KS, NH, NM). The NY candidates, however, just expended funds on primary races and need resources to be competitive in November.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/housedems2022
Pure Toss-up:
CA-22 (Salas)
CA-27 (Smith)
CO-8* (Caraveo)
KS-3 (Davids)
ME-2 (Golden)
NH-1 (Pappas)
NM-2 (Vasquez)
NY-3* (Zimmerman)
NY-22* (Conole)
NC-13 (Nickel)
OH-1 (Landsman)
PA-8 (Cartwright)
VA-2 (Luria)
WA-8 (Schrier)
Toss-up/Lean D:
CA-13* (Gray)
CT-5 (Hayes)
IL-6 (Casten)
IN-1 (Mrvan)
MI-3* (Scholten)
MI-8 (Kildee)
NV-1 (Titus)
NV-3 (Lee)
NV-4 (Horsford)
NH-2 (Kuster)
NY-19* (Ryan)
OR-4* (Hoyle)
OR-5* (McLeod-Skinner)
PA-17* (Deluzio)
RI-2 (TBD 9/13)
TX-28 (Cueller)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-7 (Spanberger)
Toss-up/Lean R:
CA-45 (Chen)
IA-3 (Axne)
NJ-7 (Malinowski)
NY-19* (Riley)
NE-2 (Vargas)
OH-9 (Kaptur)
OH-13* (Sykes)
PA-7 (Wild)
The 12th Amendment Strategy
We heard a little about this nightmare scenario in 2020: no candidate gets 270 electoral votes and the election is decided by the House of Representatives. In 2020, we were most worried about a 269-269 electoral college tie. But with Big Lie supporters running for crucial offices overseeing elections across the country, there is a very real possibility that one or more states will not certify their elections, thus denying the needed 270 votes to the rightful winner.
Then the presidential election is determined by who controls each state’s congressional delegation. Note that it is one vote per state delegation (House members only, not Senate) or winning 26 delegations. Party control of Congress is irrelevant. MAGA states will almost certainly control 23 state delegations after 2024; Democratic delegations will almost certainly control 13 state votes. This leaves 14 states up for grabs and the MAGA faction only needs three more states to ensure they control the outcome. A recent op-ed by former Colorado Sen. Tim Wirth lays out in detail how the MAGA Congress will likely select the next President if they control a majority of delegations.
Our best bets to prevent the MAGA House from selecting the next President via the 12th Amendment are:
AK-AL -- Because of ranked-choice voting, a Democrat can actually win here! Mary Peltola would be the first Native Alaskan elected to Congress. This race may come down to Mary vs. Sarah Palin. In other words, dig deep.
MT-1 -- While rated Likely R, Republican Ryan Zinke is deeply unpopular and surrounded by ethics investigations from his time as Trump’s Interior Secretary. He also lives in Santa Barbara, not Montana, so there’s that. Monica Tranel, the Democrat, is a life-long Montanan, a championship rower, and an attorney who takes on corporate hacks like…Ryan Zinke.
IA-1, IA-2, IA-3 -- Iowa’s independent redistricting commission created three extremely competitive seats. Democrat Cindy Axne (IA-3) was the only incumbent to win her seat in 2020 but both the 1st (Christina Bohannan) and 2nd (Liz Mathis) districts are within reach.
In addition, we must hold several other crucial seats in 2022 and 2024:
ME (currently 2D): Re-elect Jared Golden in ME-2
MN (currently 4D/4R): Re-elect Angie Craig in MN-2
MI (currently 7D/7R): protect Slotkin in MI-7 and Kildee in MI-8; win open seat in MI-3 and/or open seat in MI-10
NH (currently 2D): Re-elect Chris Pappas in NH-1 and Annie Kuster in NH-2
PA (currently 9D/9R): protect Wild in PA-7, Houlihan in PA-6, and Dean in PA-4; win open seat in PA-17 and/or defeat Fitzpatrick in PA-1
VA (currently 7D/4R): protect Luria in VA-2, Spanberger in VA-7, and Wexton in VA-10
Because of the power of incumbency, it is significantly easier to keep these incumbents in 2022 than try to flip them in 2024. We can not rely on late fall 2024 interest in these races to ensure victory. This is a two-fer: help Democrats hold the House in 2022 and help save democracy in 2024.
A gigantic hat tip to my longtime friend and co-conspirator David Winkler for this critical strategy and the district analysis.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/12thamendment2024
Governor and Other Statewide
Another two-fer! Elect Democratic Governors, Attorneys General, and Secretaries of State and enact better public policies for millions of Americans and safeguard democracy in 2024! Like with the US Senate, the map closely mirrors the 2024 presidential battlegrounds.
Must-wins:
Arizona -- With a late primary, Democrat Katie Hobbs now faces Republican Kari Lake, who was recruited and endorsed by Trump. We cannot allow a former Fox News anchor who proudly calls herself “The DeSantis of the West” and “Trump in a dress” to win here. Kris Mayes is running for Attorney General and Adrian Fontes is running for Secretary of State; both are very competitive. The state house and state senate are also top targets. Max $5,300 each.
Michigan -- The big three are all up: Governor (Gretchen Whitmer), Attorney General (Dana Nessel), and Secretary of State (Jocelyn Benson). Both the state house and state senate are also top tier targets to flip. Max $7,150 each.
Nevada -- The transient and large non-college population in Nevada make this one of the few states trending away from Democrats. Gov. Steve Sisolak is facing former sheriff Joe Lombardo. The Attorney General (incumbent Aaron Ford) and Secretary of State (Cisco Aguilar running in an open seat) races are also up for grabs. And we need to hold the state house and state senate (Nevada was the first state with a majority-women legislature!) Max $5,000 each.
Pennsylvania -- Governor (Josh Shapiro) is running against a huge MAGA supporter, Doug Mastriano. The Governor appoints the Secretary of State and is the last line of defense against a gerry-mandered Republican majority in the state legislature. Max unlimited.
Wisconsin -- In addition to re-electing Gov. Tony Evers, Democrats must fight off a Republican attempt to gain a supermajority in the state house, further diminishing the Governor’s power. The race for Attorney General is also very competitive with Democrat Josh Kaul up for re-election. Max $20,000 each.
Other Key Protects:
Colorado -- Attorney General Phil Weiser and Secretary of State Jena Griswold face closer-than-expected re-election races due to moderate Republicans winning their primaries. Gov. Jared Polis is considered safe but the state senate could also flip due to redistricting. Max $625 each.
Kansas -- Laura Kelly is the most endangered incumbent in the country. The abortion ban victory in August helped add Democrats to the voter rolls but we can take nothing for granted in this deep red state. Max $1,000.
Iowa -- Incumbent Attorney General Tom Miller, a Democrat, has been in office since 1995. He is the sole remaining statewide Democrat and last defense for progressive policy in-state. Max unlimited.
Minnesota -- Gov. Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Secretary of State Steve Simon are all up for re-election. Minnesota is the only state in the country with a split legislature and re-electing Gov. Walz and flipping the state senate would enable a governing trifecta. Max $4,000 Gov; $2,500 AG; $2,000 SOS.
New Mexico -- While nominally blue, Michelle Lujan Grisham is a top target for Republicans. Latino men are trending away and turnout is of particular concern here. New Mexico has a one-seat pro-choice majority in the state legislature and overturned a pre-Roe state ban on abortion just this year. Max $10,000.
Oregon -- A well-funded independent candidate is putting this seat in jeopardy. Speaker of the House Tina Kotek, the Democrat, faces independent Betsy Johnson and Republican Kevin Stitt in this open seat. The Cook Political Report just rated this a toss-up. Max unlimited.
Fingers, Toes, and Eyes Crossed:
Florida -- Incumbent Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has now raised more money than any other candidate in 2022, including former President Trump. Charlie Crist, a former Republican turned independent Governor turned Democratic member of Congress can give DeSantis a run for his money, literally, and stop his presidential aspirations in their tracks. Remember, elections in Florida are won or lost by +/- 1%.
Georgia -- Stacey, Jen, and Bee. Like Michigan, the big three are up in Georgia and we have women candidates running for all of them. Stacey Abrams will take on Gov. Brian Kemp in the ultimate rematch. Jen Jordan is running for Attorney General against incumbent Chris Carr and Bee Nyugen tries to knock off “Not a Hero for Doing Your Job” Brad Raffensberger for Secretary of State. Max $7,600 each plus unlimited leadership PACs.
Ohio -- Nan fan here! Nan Whaley, that is. My old friend is running for Governor and has pulled within the margin of error. The Dobbs decision and Gov. Mike DeWine’s ongoing corruption scandals make this a potential upset. Max $13,704.41 -- don’t forget the 41 cents!
Give to only Governors: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022governors
Give to all crucial statewides: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/save-democracy-2022
The Justice Project has a slate for critical state supreme court races. And the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is my go-to to give to state legislative races; other organizations are also focused here but the DLCC can coordinate with candidates directly and they know the districts, caucuses, and states inside and out.
Get Out The Vote (501c3 and 501c4)
We are *almost* at the point where additional 501c3, tax deductible donations are not effective. Key organizations are still filling gaps for voter registration, education, and non-partisan turnout efforts as well as election administration and voting rights work.
Easy buttons here include:
Alliance for Youth Organizing is registering and turning out young voters in key states including AZ, FL, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, OH, and TX.
Center for Tech & Civic Life provides expertise, training, support, and often direct funding to overworked and underappreciated local election officials.
The Election Protection coalition, home of the 866-OUR-VOTE hotline, works with over 100 partners to help voters vote.
Everybody Votes is focused on narrowing the registration gap between Black, Indigenous, Hispanic, Latino, and Asian-American and Pacific Islander voters in 12 states. Email grants@everybodyvotes.com for more information.
State Voices is the umbrella organization for over 100 501c3 groups nationally and in critical states working on democracy issues with an emphasis on engaging historically marginalized communities. Voter registration and mobilization is the keystone of their work. State Voices not only coordinates programs but also provides data tools, training, and support; many organizations would not have access to the voter file without them.
VoteAmerica is a non-profit organization founded by a small team of elections and technology experts (including the founders of Vote.org and Vote.gov). VoteAmerica uses backend technology to scale efforts (think: voter registration verification on TurboTax when filing taxes and one-click “check the box” voter registration during college course registration).
For 501c4 (not tax-deductible and not publicly disclosed donations), America Votes remains the gold standard. They work with over 400 organizations nationally and in 17 key states to coordinate voter contact and turnout efforts.
I also remain deeply worried about women voters, particularly white (and often suburban) Moms. While the Dobbs decision has energized a segment of these women, many are likely to be torn by attacks on their bodily autonomy vs. the incoming bile from the Right around critical race theory, mask mandates, and parents’ rights in schools. Many organizations have been working for years to better understand and connect with these women voters. And we cannot. keep. taking. women of color. for. granted. Period. We must invest in groups that are led by and focus on women of color.
Key 501c4 organizations working to communicate with and turnout women voters include (yes, all of the groups also have 501c3 sister organizations but 501c4 money is what is needed at this late stage):
Finally, I encourage everyone to support the Michigan ballot measure to enshrine abortion access. Reproductive Freedom for All is the coalition and funding entity.
More soon on why you should give to school board races not in your backyard.