The presidential election is a toss-up. The US Senate map is hard. Control of the US House is a toss-up. I put the chances of a Democratic trifecta at 15%, a Republican trifecta at 25%, and divided government at 60%.
The first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place on June 27 and, yes, it could change everything. Joe Biden is known to be a game-day performer (see: State of the Union); will that Joe Biden show up? Will he be seen as robust and capable by the 2020 voters who are now doubters? Donald Trump is known for pulling stunts and ignoring the rules. Can moderators keep him in line? Can Biden get under Trump’s skin and set him off? Neither man has debated for four years; what impact will that have? There are so many unknowns (will Trump actually show up?) but we know it will be a momentous event. While the debate could change everything, it likely will not. This race has been remarkably stable. Even Trump being convicted of 34 felonies hasn’t moved the needle much (yet).
I am very nervous.
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The general election starts today. There are 286 days until Election Day (and many states start voting 30 or even 45 days before -- you go, Virginia!) This WILL be a Biden-Trump rematch, barring a major medical event. Superdelegates won’t swap out Biden for a different nominee and Nikki Haley has no path forward. We need to help our friends and family understand this binary choice and the consequences of staying home or voting third party. You are who they look to for advice -- post on social media and pass on positive news (you don’t need to debunk every conspiracy theory or get into debates but getting good stuff out there helps).
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Now we give our time instead of our treasure. (But yes, there are still places to give treasure -- read on.) By the end of today, over 85 million voters will have cast their ballot. This is expected to be the highest turnout election in over a century. But there’s more we can do!
Below are a bunch of ways to engage around the election. Be sure to read to the end for instructions on how to participate in our election pool!
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Are you freaking out yet? We have 95 days until Election Day. And we’re about to enter silly season — VP speculation, the conventions, pollercoasters, and lots and lots of late money being thrown at anything that sounds feasible.
In addition to the usual giving recommendations, I also offer some advice on all of the above along with some resources to aid your sanity.
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With multiple candidates having declared already, the 2020 presidential election is well underway. While we will be providing more information about grassroots organzations, down-ballot races, and other investments, we know all eyes are on the race for the White House.
Here are a few resources:
