The presidential election is a toss-up. The US Senate map is hard. Control of the US House is a toss-up. I put the chances of a Democratic trifecta at 15%, a Republican trifecta at 25%, and divided government at 60%. 

The first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place on June 27 and, yes, it could change everything. Joe Biden is known to be a game-day performer (see: State of the Union); will that Joe Biden show up? Will he be seen as robust and capable by the 2020 voters who are now doubters? Donald Trump is known for pulling stunts and ignoring the rules. Can moderators keep him in line? Can Biden get under Trump’s skin and set him off? Neither man has debated for four years; what impact will that have? There are so many unknowns (will Trump actually show up?) but we know it will be a momentous event. While the debate could change everything, it likely will not. This race has been remarkably stable. Even Trump being convicted of 34 felonies hasn’t moved the needle much (yet). 

I am very nervous.