Where To Give Now: June 2024
National Overview and Presidential Election
The presidential election is a toss-up. The US Senate map is hard. Control of the US House is a toss-up. I put the chances of a Democratic trifecta at 15%, a Republican trifecta at 25%, and divided government at 60%.
The first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place on June 27 and, yes, it could change everything. Joe Biden is known to be a game-day performer (see: State of the Union); will that Joe Biden show up? Will he be seen as robust and capable by the 2020 voters who are now doubters? Donald Trump is known for pulling stunts and ignoring the rules. Can moderators keep him in line? Can Biden get under Trump’s skin and set him off? Neither man has debated for four years; what impact will that have? There are so many unknowns (will Trump actually show up?) but we know it will be a momentous event. While the debate could change everything, it likely will not. This race has been remarkably stable. Even Trump being convicted of 34 felonies hasn’t moved the needle much (yet).
I am very nervous. I worry about turnout, 2020 coalition voters, RFK Jr, war in the Middle East, disinformation, political violence, a Biden medical incident, and many other unknown factors. On the other hand, Trump has a low ceiling and a high floor; his voters are his voters and it’s an uphill battle to convince others. Biden needs to convince voters who voted for him before or are likely to support Democrats for other offices.
And I have faith in our infrastructure. Organizations across the country have been preparing for this for years. We have invested in and tested new organizing tactics online and offline, found local influencers to reach critical sub-demographics, and built out field programs in key states on the hard and soft sides.
While we used to breathe a sigh of relief when polls closed on Election Day, we now know we cannot stop working until noon on Inauguration Day. Pro-democracy and other groups are also preparing for before and after Election Day to ensure votes can be cast and counted and our election workers are safe. We need everything to go right; they just need one bad actor to muck up the works. A lot more to come on pro-democracy work next month.
While overall trends may move slightly in our direction and state polls will ebb and flow, this will be a very, very close election in a handful of states. I worry about our over-reliance on the Blue Wall states (PA, MI, WI) and the optics of a 270-268 Biden win in the electoral college, knowing he is also unlikely to get to 50% in the popular vote due to third party candidates. We skirted a lot of potential chaos in 2020 because the election was not dependent on a win in one state. A narrow victory will unleash the worst of everything and Trump will be desperate to win. We need to invest in AZ, GA, NE-2, and NV to ensure a broad victory.
Below I rank states from most likely to least likely to flip (IMHO).
Nevada: Nevada is #1 because of its overlapping targets. Simply put, Nevada is moving away from us because of demographics. It has a large, transient, non-college population, including many Latino and Black non-college men who have been moving away from Democrats in recent cycles. We can stem this tide but it will take time we don’t have right now. Nevada was the only state to flip from blue to red in 2022, defeating an incumbent Democratic Governor. Also in 2022, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s race was the closest in the country, decided by just a few thousand votes. Nevada has a critical US Senate race again this cycle with Sen. Jacky Rosen running for her first re-election. Notably, one-third of current voters did not live in Nevada when she won in 2018. Sen. Rosen’s race has been getting less bell-ringing than Montana and Ohio and she has raised less money than her male counterparts. Nevada also has three competitive US House races. Democrats should retain majorities in both chambers of the state legislature but narrower majorities might make stopping Gov. Lombardo’s agenda more difficult. Nevada will have an abortion rights Constitutional Amendment on the ballot but voters need to pass it twice -- in 2024 and 2026 -- for the law to go into effect. Groups including Somos, Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada, Asian Community Development Council, and the Culinary Workers are running excellent organizing campaigns.
Georgia: The biggest obstacle in Georgia is the lack of other competitive races. Voters will need to turn out simply to vote for President and a handful of competitive local races. Unlike in 2020, there are no other statewide races and gerrymandering has eliminated any competitive US House races. Republicans hold strong majorities in both state legislative chambers. While powerhouse groups New Georgia Project and Fair Fight went through some turmoil in the past few years, they are both under good leadership and ramping up efforts. We cannot allow infrastructure in Georgia to go overlooked and underfunded and expect to be able to ramp up in 2025 for the critical re-election of Sen. Jon Ossoff and an open Governor’s race.
Arizona: Everything is up for grabs in Arizona: presidential battleground, US Senate races, four potentially competitive US House races, control of the state house and state senate, two Supreme Court seats, and an abortion rights ballot measure. Whew. Ruben Gallego is a terrific US Senate candidate and is polling well against right-wing crazy Kari Lake. His popularity may help Biden as well. There are a few key organizations organizing in-state, notably Lucha and Somos in the Latino communities, but Arizona does not have a long history of strong c3/c4 infrastructure.
Michigan: The war in the Middle East reverberates most in Michigan, with large numbers of Arab-American and Muslim voters. There are simply so many unknowns here. But an incumbent Governor, Secretary of State, and 2022 wins plus good groups on the ground give me hope. Rep. Elissa Slotkin will have a hard-fought race for the open US Senate race and there are two toss-up US House races. The Michigan Donor Alliance coordinates in-state organizations including Detroit Action, Arab Americans for Progress,
Pennsylvania: This is Joe Biden’s backyard. His personal story resonates here more than other states and he spends more time here than other states. All of that matters to voters. Sen. Bob Casey is up for re-election; he is very popular in-state and is polling outside the margin of error. There are 4-5 competitive US House races as well. But large swaths of the electorate, especially the nearly 700,000 college students (the 5th highest in the country) and Black voters in Philadelphia and elsewhere, will need persuasion and mobilization. The Student Turnout Project launched Project 76 for last year’s Supreme Court elections and is expanding efforts statewide. The Pennsylvania Alliance, the state donor table, coordinates funding for key priorities.
Wisconsin: The infrastructure that has been built on the ground is simply second to none. From the Wisconsin Democratic Party to A Better Wisconsin Together to Leaders Igniting Transformation, the groups know exactly what to do to win. Sen. Tammy Baldwin is also up for re-election and will help up and down the ticket; she is polling outside the margin of error. The state legislative elections have fair maps for the first time in over a decade and Democrats have a chance to flip the state house.
North Carolina: Josh Stein can and must win the Governor's race against true crazy MAGA nominee Mark Robinson and we can break the Republican supermajority in the state house. There is excellent organizing happening in the state, including New North Carolina Project, Down Home North Carolina, and Advance Carolina. I am a believer in North Carolina for the long-term but this cycle is still tough at the presidential level.
Florida: It’s not going to happen this cycle at the presidential level. But the abortion rights ballot measure and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s US Senate race are very worthy of investment, along with key organizing groups like Florida Rising, and help us build for 2026.
US Senate
Not much has changed over the last few months with the US Senate map. Republican primaries are shaking out along predictable lines, with a key primary left in Michigan. Some people may disagree with my tiers and groupings based on competitiveness but this is how I see things shaking out based on past performance and current polling.
Tier 1
MI: Rep. Elissa Slotkin vs. TBD (open seat; primary 8/6)
MT: Sen. Jon Tester vs. Tim Sheehy
NV: Sen. Jacky Rosen vs. Sam Brown
OH: Sen. Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno
Tier 2
AZ: Rep. Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake (open seat)
MD: Angela Alsobrooks vs. Fmr Gov. Larry Hogan (open seat)
PA: Sen. Bob Casey vs. Dave McCormick
WI: Sen. Tammy Baldwin vs. Eric Holve
Tier 3: Challengers
FL: Fmr Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell vs. Sen. Rick Scott
TX: Rep. Colin Allred vs. Sen. Ted Cruz
To be clear though, the tiers do not reflect which races need money most right now. Sen. Jacky Rosen’s race in Nevada will be as competitive as those of her peers in Montana and Ohio but she is raising less money (not due to lack of effort). Angela Alsobrooks has to rebuild her coffers from scratch after a bruising primary against a self-funder. She will need a lot of resources to win, even in Maryland; please do not assume her race is in the bag.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/senate2024
US House and 12th Amendment Strategy
A lot of people -- media, funders, and activists -- assume Democrats are going to take back the House. I do not. I grew up in NY-17, went to college in NY-22, and did a lot of work trying to flip the Southern California seats in 2018. Across California and New York, those districts are tough and we cannot assume we will win them, even with nationalization of abortion and more organizing capacity. We also have 11 incumbents in toss-up races that we need to hold.
I will provide a more comprehensive look at the whole map after a few key primaries in Arizona and Michigan in the coming months. But for now, I want to focus on a key strategy around the 12th Amendment, created by my brilliant friend and long-time collaborator David Winkler.
This 12th Amendment Strategy is a critical play in the non-zero possibility of a 269-269 electoral college tie or if no candidate reaches 270 votes because one or more states refuse to certify the election results or do not do so by January 6th, thereby creating a contingent election.
According to the 12th Amendment, if no candidate receives 270 electoral college votes, an absolute majority of congressional delegations select the President with one vote per state delegation (26 state votes are needed, ties or abstentions would not lower that number; House members only, not Senate). GOP members currently control 26 state delegations and new maps in North Carolina will add one more majority after ‘24, for a total of 27. However, there is a realistic and narrow path to preventing the GOP from holding 26 states in January 2025. Pro-democracy efforts must flip or tie two state delegations and prevent any flips.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball (at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia) also published a detailed overview and analysis.
There are seven key races in four states that matter most (in order from most to least likely):
Arizona (9 seats) - Two Democratic pick-ups would flip the delegation to 5-4. AZ-1 has a competitive Democratic primary on July 30 to take on Rep. David Schweikert (toss-up). AZ-6 features Democrat Kirsten Engel vs. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (toss-up).
Montana (2 seats) - A pickup in MT-1 would tie the delegation. Democrat Monica Tranel is again challenging Rep. Ryan Zinke; this race is on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list. While it is rated likely Republican, resources and organizing around the US Senate can help boost Tranel.
Wisconsin (8 seats) - The current delegation is 5-2 with one relatively safe GOP vacancy that will be filled by special election. There are two key races that could tie the state delegation at 4-4. In WI-1, former Democratic Rep. Peter Barca recently jumped into the WI-1 race against incumbent Bryan Steil; this race is on the Red to Blue list. In WI-3, Rebecca Cooke is the Democratic frontrunner (8/13 primary) to take on first-term GOP incumbent and January 6th attendee, Derrick Van Orden.
Iowa (4 seats) - Two pickups would tie the delegation while three would flip it. Both IA-3 and IA-1 are on the Red to Blue List. In IA-3, Democrat Lanon Baccam is taking on Rep. Zach Nunn (toss-up). IA-1 is a rematch between Democrat Christina Bohannan and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who first won in 2022 (likely R).
While some of these races are very hard to win, they also represent high ROI districts. Arizona, Montana, and Wisconsin are nested races with strong on the ground efforts underway and it is cheap to run paid communications in Iowa.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/12thamendment2024
The most likely delegation to flip is in the statewide Alaska seat where Mary Peltola won a surprise special election victory in 2022. Trump recently endorsed Alaska's Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom while 2022 GOP candidate Nick Begich has said he will drop out if he doesn't come in first in the all-candidate primary prior to the "final four" ranked-choice vote in November. It is very possible that Peltola will face only one Republican in November, unlike in 2022 when Begich and Sarah Palin split the Republican vote.
It is also critical to hold majority maker seats in key delegations, although incumbent and toss-up races tend to be better funded: AK-AL (Mary Peltola, toss-up); CO-8 (Yadira Caraveo, toss-up); ME-2 (Jared Golden, toss-up); MI-7 (open, Curtis Hertel, toss-up) and MI-8 (open, TBD, toss-up); MN-2 (Angie Craig, lean D); NH-2 (open, TBD, likely D); NM-2 (Gabe Vasquez, toss-up); NV-3 (Susie Lee, lean D); PA-7 (Susan Wild, toss-up) and PA-8 (Matt Cartwright, toss-up); and VA-7 (open, Eugene Vindman, lean D).
Coming soon:
Giving to pro-democracy and election administration efforts
Down-ballot races including US House, State Supreme Court, and state legislative races
Abortion on the ballot