What Just Happened???
Well, it’s been a few days since our souls were crushed. I am still deep in the sad/despair stage of grief. I had my heart broken in 2000, 2004, and 2016. I tried so hard not to be overly optimistic until the last few days when I really thought things were moving towards us (I curse you, Ann Selzer). In 2016, we were mad. Trump’s win felt like a fluke and we had boogeymen to point to -- James Comey, Bernie bros, the media, etc. This time, we know it’s not a fluke. It’s a pattern. Voters chose Trump with eyes wide open. We’ll learn more about the why over time. And I’m just so, so sad.
By now, we have all seen the quick takes and charts. This is part of a global, post-COVID wave in which incumbents were ousted in 12 countries. In the US, the party in power has lost every time since 2006 except the 2012 Obama re-elect. Ultimately, Harris could not overcome being associated with an unpopular incumbent and Trump was seen as the change agent by 73% of voters (according to exit polls).
So, what now? Here are my initial take-aways:
We need to re-think but not overthink. This was a red something but not a red wave. Even as 90% of counties in the US went more red than 2020, Trump only won the popular vote by ~1.5%. We should approach the next few weeks, months, and even years with humility. Past assumptions about elections didn’t pan out. After 2004, Democrats thought we needed a white guy who could appeal to the South. Instead, we nominated Barack Obama. The Republican Autopsy Report in 2013 said they should have a more welcoming message to immigrants and people of color; three years later they nominated Donald Trump. In 2024, Democrats had a very tough Senate map and gerrymandered House map but still did well down-ballot despite headwinds at the top.
No one tactic could have changed this. This was a big enough win that arguing over whether Shapiro should have been on the ticket or if the Harris closing message should have been more or less about Trump. There are broader cultural things happening. There is a possible realignment happening across education, class, age, gender, and race. Young people, Latinos, and non-college women felt particularly vulnerable on economic issues and that may have been enough to move them. Whether this is a Trump phenomenon, a 2024 issue, or something more systemic, we just don’t know yet.
We do need to rethink our economic policies. Whatever we’re doing hasn’t been helping working people for a long, long time. We need to stop tinkering around the edges and make major structural changes to the persistent and growing income and wealth gaps, the social safety net, and our tax system. This is very much not my lane and I look forward to debating big ideas.
We need to dramatically change how we communicate. This is way bigger than perpetual Democratic hand-wringing over our message. Our message isn’t even being heard by most voters. We can’t simply mimic what the Right has been doing for decades but we do need to build media and other forms of communication across many platforms, from radio to social media. I am not an expert in this and many smart people have been looking at and starting to solve this problem for years. I will listen and learn.
The gender gap appears to be the same as in 2018 and 2020, with the usual caveats around exit polls. This is perhaps the most shocking part for me, as someone who believed/s in the women’s vote. Economics trumped everything else (see what I did there?). I think there was a big believability gap around the likelihood of a national abortion ban. Trump was also able to neutralize a lot of abortion messaging by obfuscating his position. Voters supported abortion rights ballot measures, outperforming the top of the ticket everywhere and winning in 7/10 states (plus getting 57% in FL and there being competing measures in NE). But huge numbers of voters supported abortion rights on the ballot and anti-choice candidates for President on down. They either thought they were protecting their own rights in-state (again, see believability gap) and could therefore afford to vote for candidates on other issues or simply did not vote on that issue when other competing interests were also at stake. And white women…oy. So much work left to do there.
But…women candidates held on. Sens. Jacky Rosen (NV) and Tammy Baldwin (WI) won re-election even as Sen. Bob Casey (PA) appears to have lost, along with Tester and Brown. We will net gain two women in the Senate (Angela Alsobrooks! Lisa Blunt Rochester! Two Black women in the Senate for the first time in history) and likely net gain one in the House. We have much more to explore around the role of sexism and racism in this election, particularly how voters view a president, but down-ballot, we had big wins.
Polls weren’t wrong. They’re just imperfect. Most polls were well within the margin of error. It is normal for independents/undecideds to shift one way or the other at the end. That’s what we saw. We do need to expand how we listen and respond to voters; I think this is tied to alternate communications platforms as well.
Organizing matters. Battleground states once again performed differently. As we saw in 2022, in states where we tried, we did better. Democrats lost the seven battleground states by 2-3 points while losing ground in most other states -- blue and red -- by 6+ points. But we do need to rethink our field programs and fund true, year-round, permanent organizing and not just ramp up GOTV efforts (or, worse, fund “cost per vote” programs that don’t actually work and may even hurt us -- don’t get me started) in the months leading up to an election.
Which leads me to…try everywhere. How can we possibly win an election if we’re not organizing, listening, and showing up everywhere and all the time? We can’t write off huge swaths of the electorate or entire regions. Committee on States and others have been building the resources needed to make long-term plays in the states, including many deep red states. We had some wins in non-battleground state legislatures across the country (CO and NM joined NV as being majority-female) and mitigated the down-ballot impact of a red wave. This doesn’t just happen. I do not regret a single dollar I helped direct to candidates who lost, particularly outside of battleground states. Now we need to build on what was started.
And finally, money matters. I am deeply worried about a system that allowed Elon Musk, a government contractor on multiple projects, to spend $200 million to influence the election. We will debate money spent on TV ads and digital influencers. But our side had more than enough to compete and we did. We cannot stop. I am concerned that “our” billionaires and other donors will take a step back out of fear of retribution (see profile in cowardice Jeff Bezos) and exhaustion. We have plenty of money, from the grassroots on up, to fund what we need to win in more places. A reminder than while we spent $16 billion on the presidential election, we also spent $13 billion on Halloween. Our campaign finance system is bonkers and I look forward to organizing myself out of a job with major policy (and judicial) changes in the coming years. In the meantime, I hope these memos will continue to help direct donors large and small to the most impactful investments.
Take some time to rest and reflect. More to come soon (including my annual Giving Tuesday memo)...