Where To Give Now | Oct 29, 2024
One week, everyone. It’s all hands on deck. Remember, we don’t know what the early vote is telling us. The 2020 election was a Black Swan event and we cannot compare apples to oranges. Polls were not designed to measure races this close and margin of error is real. This could be a relative blowout either way or an extremely close race that takes weeks to decide. Brace yourself.
DO Something
I don’t know about you, but I always listen to Michelle Obama. And when she says to DO something, I complete the assignment. As Tim Walz tells us, “You can sleep when you’re dead.” There are still ways to help -- GOTV weekend is crucial so go knock some doors!
Go to Mobilize.us to find local volunteer opportunities up and down the ballot. You can also go to https://go.kamalaharris.com/ for Harris-Walz specifically.
Long lines are going to happen -- give to Pizza to the Polls to help voters stay in line, for early voting and Election Day.
Repost positive Harris-Walz and other content on social media. But don’t repost election information from sources you don’t know and trust.
Encourage friends and family - especially those in battleground states - to make a plan to vote and to vote early.
Battleground States
State field and communications gaps: Building for Democracy is a multi-state, multi-entity giving vehicle supported by four major donor alliances. They are coordinating giving priorities in key states via the state donor tables and groups on the ground. They can accept 501c3, 501c4, and, in some states, PAC funds. In-state gaps are tracked regularly to maximize efficiency and fund the most urgent needs. BFD is purposefully not public-facing. The current gap is $11m c4. For more information, email Caitlin Blair Fessler at caitlin@cbfstrategies.com.
National field and communications gaps: America Votes has large gaps in programs for key constituencies in battleground states. Many of these programs are scalable and include paying more canvassers, additional digital and relational outreach, and more. The current gap is $9.7m c4. For more information, email Kellie Dupree at kdupree@americavotes.org.
US Senate
The big six (MI, NE, NV, PA, TX, WI) remain the same. Republicans are spending in all of these states and races where our candidates once had 5-7 point leads are tightening. Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/senate2024
The Nebraska race is TIED. This is the most flippable state on the path to 50 seats.
After maxing to Dan Osborn, consider Retire Career Politicians PAC.
Give online: https://secure.democracyengine.com/RetireCareerPoliticiansPAC
Contact: Matt Lyon, matt@blueprintcampaigns.com or (801) 597-8888 for wire info
US House
I am a broken record on the 12th Amendment strategy, although I have dropped WI-3 from the list. Check out this write-up from Split Ticket and this one from Sabato’s Crystal Ball at UVA on hypothetical outcomes where the presidential election is decided by the US House of Representatives.
Flip
AZ-1 (Amish Shah, Toss-up), AZ-6 (Kirsten Engel, Toss-up)
IA-1 (Christina Bohannan, Toss-up), IA-3 (Lanon Baccam, Toss-up)
MT-1 (Monica Tranel, Lean R)
WI-1 (Rebecca Cooke, Lean R)
Keep
AK-AL (Mary Peltola, Toss-up)
CO-8 (Yadira Caraveo, Toss-up)
MI-7 (Curtis Hertel, Toss-up), MI-8 (Kristen McDonald Rivet, Toss-up) , and/or flip MI-10 (Carl Marlinga, Lean R)
ME-2 (Jared Golden, Toss-up)
PA-7 (Susan Wild, Toss-up), PA-8 (Matt Cartwright, Toss-up)
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/12thamendment2024
Non-Federal
NH Gov: Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig vs. former Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Both chambers are also up and we could flip all three for a trifecta. Craig needs resources to be competitive in this toss-up race. The max is $5,000. If you have more than $5,000, the DGA is running an IE and they are being outspent on Boston TV. We are trying to close this gap by Sunday, October 20. Feel free to reach out to Andrew Whalen directly, awhalen@demgovs.org.
NC and PA Attorney General: There are big implications for the 2024 elections should either Republican candidate win in either state. In NC, Republicans are redirecting resources from the failed Governor’s race; give to Rep. Jeff Jackson (max $6,400). In PA, billionaire Jeff Yass has spent $13m to defeat win; give to Eugene DePasquale (unlimited).
Give to the above: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/statewide2024
Most important women running in the most competitive state legislative races:
https://womencount.org/teams/100-day-down-ballot-giving-plan/
Save Democracy
There are significant remaining gaps on both the c3 and c4 side for both election administration and election protection. These organizations will continue to need resources after Election Day for litigation, communications, community organizing, election worker assistance, and more.
Resilient Elections Fund: REN (Center for Secure & Modern Elections, Center for Tech & Civic Life, and Institute for Responsive Government) coordinates election administration work in all 50 states. REN is the hub for ensuring election jurisdictions have the resources they need, from funding to technical assistance to rapid response communications. They have a $6m c3 and $7m c4 gap. Contact: Janae Dasef at janae@resilientelectionsnetwork.org. Wire info below.
Trusted Elections Fund: TEF is a pooled fund to support grassroots organizations in key states working to safeguard our elections. Many of these organizations are simultaneously working to get out the vote and protect the elections while planning for post-election scenarios, requiring additional resources for staff and training. They also help administer the Guardian Fund, which provides safety and security infrastructure for groups and individuals. They have a $4m c3 and $3m c4 gap. Contact: Jenny Flanagan at jflanagan@trusted-elections.org. Wire info below.
And remember (courtesy of election lawyer Sarah Gonski)
There are always technical issues on Election Day; with thousands of jurisdictions, something always goes wrong. Officials are preparing for the unexpected with lots of backup plans.
There may not be as strong of a Red mirage this time as Republican candidates are stressing early voting more and we have seen that play out in numerous states.
Recounts are normal and they happen every election cycle, from local races on up. But the only matter or potentially change the outcome in extremely close (>100-1000 votes) elections.
Certification challenges are the new hanging chad. We will see some local jurisdictions fail to certify but we have a lot of ways to prepare.
Litigation will happen. We are prepared.
Why we may not know the winner of the US presidential election on Nov. 5
EAC info on Election Results, Canvass, and Certification
Cool infographic from NYT: What Threats Does My Vote Really Face?
Trackers for Election Night/Week
The AL Advising tracker includes poll closing times and key races to watch (last tab).
Center for American Women in Politics
iCivics Electoral College map for kids
The DownBallot guide to everything below the presidential level
Follow local and state election officials and election data dorks on X (big sigh but still helpful here) and other social media.
As former Colorado Congresswoman Pat Schroeder said, “You can't wring your hands and roll up your sleeves at the same time.”