Where To Give Now | Oct 11, 2024
If you’re in full freak out mode, get off the computer and DO SOMETHING. My family and I knocked doors in CO-8 last weekend and it felt wonderful to be out there (and not just because of the beautiful fall weather in Colorado). We’re heading to Las Vegas to canvass this weekend and have been doing postcards with MomsRising and letters with Vote Forward as well.
Ignore the polls. Every battleground state is within the margin of error -- or, as we now like to say, the margin of effort -- and polls simply cannot accurately capture an election this close. I’d rather be us than them and our ground game will likely add 1-2 points.
Below, I outline where to give now to maximize impact, what to expect in the coming days and weeks, how to volunteer, and what I consume (ie, how to dork out).
US Senate
Incumbents and most open seats are well-funded but a few races can still use last-minute funds.
Blue: MD -- Angela Alsobrooks vs. Larry Hogan. This race is looking better but Alsobrooks is still being dramatically outspent and needs resources to get out her message and vision.
Purple: PA and WI -- Not surprisingly, both Sen. Casey and Sen. Baldwin have seen tightening polls in these purple states. Both are running against self-funders and need additional resources in the final weeks to overcome a spending disadvantage. Gallego in AZ, Slotkin in MI, and Rosen in NV are looking good and are well-resourced; Jon Tester in MT and Sherrod Brown in OH have the resources they need.
Red: NE, TX, FL Independent Dan Osborn vs. Sen. Deb Fischer. This remains a very close race with both sides now up on the air. Polls show the race tied or Osborn with a slight lead. Similarly, races are tightening in TX and FL, with TX looking slightly more doable. Closing the remaining 1-4 point gaps in both states remains tough, regardless of money.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/senate2024
If you have already maxed to any candidates, you can give an additional $10,000 to Victory Funds, in partnership with state parties (note that if you have already given federal funds to a state party for the presidential or another race either directly or via the DNC Victory Fund, you cannot give to a Victory Fund). You can also give additional funds to the DSCC or Senate Majority PAC. Feel free to contact me for additional information.
US House
Once again, I want to raise up the 12th Amendment Strategy for the non-zero chance that the election is decided by the US House of Representatives. This means we need to hold and flip state delegations for a total of 26, not just win additional states in CA and NY. Check out this write-up from Split Ticket and this one from Sabato’s Crystal Ball at UVA on hypothetical outcomes.
Flip
AZ-1 (Amish Shah, Toss-up), AZ-6 (Kirsten Engel, Toss-up)
IA-1 (Christina Bohannan, Toss-up), IA-3 (Lanon Baccam, Toss-up)
MT-1 (Monica Tranel, Lean R)
WI-1 (Rebecca Cooke, Lean R), WI-3 (Peter Barca, Likely R)
Keep
AK-AL (Mary Peltola, Toss-up)
CO-8 (Yadira Caraveo, Toss-up)
MI-7 (Curtis Hertel, Toss-up), MI-8 (Kristen McDonald Rivet, Toss-up) , and/or flip MI-10 (Carl Marlinga, Lean R)
ME-2 (Jared Golden, Lean D)
PA-7 (Susan Wild, Toss-up), PA-8 (Matt Cartwright, Toss-up)
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/12thamendment2024
Down-Ballot
Joyce Craig won the 9/13 primary for NH Gov and is facing former Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Both chambers are also up and we could flip all three for a trifecta. Craig needs resources to be competitive in this toss-up race. The max is $5,000.
If you have more than $5,000, the DGA is running an IE and they are being outspent on Boston TV. We are trying to close this gap by Sunday, October 20. Feel free to reach out to Andrew Whalen directly, awhalen@demgovs.org.
Open Attorneys General races in NC and PA are extremely competitive. There are big implications for the 2024 elections should either Republican candidate win in either state. In NC, Republicans are redirecting resources from the failed Governor’s race; give to Rep. Jeff Jackson (max $6,400). In PA, billionaire Jeff Yass has spent $13m to defeat win; give to Eugene DePasquale (unlimited).
Give to the above: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/statewide2024
There are also critical state legislative races across the country, to keep or flip chambers, secure gender equity, and support rising stars.
Electing Women & Sister District: https://womencount.org/teams/sister-district/
Indigenous People’s Day slate: https://womencount.org/teams/indigenous-peoples-day-2024/
We also need to ensure progressive majorities and protect state-level protections by electing supreme court justices in key states.
State Supreme Court races: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/statesupremecourt
Finally, we need to support our local election officials who are truly on the front lines of democracy and are facing unprecedented threats.
Crucial local election officials: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/democracy-defenders
Last-minute c3 needs
Election Administration: Resilient Elections Network (Center for Secure & Modern Elections, Center for Tech & Civic Life, and Institute for Responsive Government) coordinates election administration work in all 50 states. REN is the hub for ensuring election jurisdictions have the resources they need, from funding to technical assistance to rapid response communications. Contact Janae Dasef at janae@resilientelectionsnetwork.org for more information or give online to CTCL at https://www.techandciviclife.org/. Give any remaining c3 funds ASAP!
In the States
We have reached the point where picking individual states or organizations is not helpful -- trust the people on the ground and those coordinating programs and gaps to know where last-minute funding is most needed.
State field and communications gaps: Building for Democracy is a multi-state, multi-entity giving vehicle supported by four major donor alliances. They are coordinating giving priorities in key states via the state donor tables and groups on the ground. They can accept 501c3, 501c4, and, in some states, PAC funds. In-state gaps are tracked regularly to maximize efficiency and fund the most urgent needs. BFD is purposefully not public-facing. For more information, email Caitlin Blair Fessler at caitlin@cbfstrategies.com.
National field and communications gaps: America Votes has large gaps in programs for key constituencies in battleground states. Many of these programs are scalable and include paying more canvassers, additional digital and relational outreach, and more. For more information, email Kellie Dupree at kdupree@americavotes.org.
What to Expect When You’re Stressing
Like me, you have probably spent the last few weeks on an emotional roller coaster. Not only looking at polls but second-guessing campaign decisions, cursing at the media, and more. There are too many potential election scenarios to name and a lot of known unknowns. Both sides have filed a tremendous amount of litigation ahead of the election. We also know there will be last-minute challenges to keep polls open late due to normal snafus like polling locations opening late or additional weather events.
Below are some resources to help you deal with the stress and help you know what to expect in the coming days, weeks, and -- sigh -- potentially months.
How Vote Counting Rules Have Changed in Key States Since 2020
Could a Swing State Halt the Vote Count? -- this doesn’t have to be a swing state; any state with enough electoral college votes to swing a narrow election could do this
Why the Supreme Court Might Cast the Final Vote for President
In Case of an Election Crisis, This Is What You Need to Know
States have different rules for pre-processing absentee and mail-in ballots and for early, in-person voting. There will be another red mirage although likely not as pronounced as in 2020.
States also have different rules for certification. Democracy Docket has a terrific breakdown of the process.
If you really want to do a deep dive, I recommend How to Steal a Presidential Election by Lawrence Lessig and Matthew Seligman. Numerous podcasts are focused on legal issues; more in What I Consume below.
Arizona
Processing upon receipt; counting upon receipt but results not released until polls close on Election Day. EV begins 27 days before Election Day and ends the Friday before Election Day.
Democratic Governor and Secretary of State. State deadline for certification by the SOS is Dec 2.
Georgia
Signature verification upon receipt; other processing on the 3rd Monday before Election Day; counting at 7:00am on Election Day. EV begins the fourth Monday before Election Day and ends the Friday before Election Day.
Republican Governor and Secretary of State. State deadline for certification by the Governor is Nov 23.
Michigan
Processing eight days before Election Day; counting at 7:00am on Election Day. Any registered voter is entitled to an absentee ballot. EV begins nine days before Election Day and ends the Sunday before Election Day.
Democratic Governor and Secretary of State. State deadline for certification by the Board of State Canvassers (2D, 2R) is Nov 25.
Nevada
Signature verification upon receipt; counting 15 days before Election Day. Every registered voter who has not opted out is mailed a ballot. Limited EV the third Saturday before Election Day and ends the Friday before Election Day.
Republican Governor and Democratic Secretary of State. State deadline for certification by the SOS and majority of the Nevada Supreme Court is Nov 26.
North Carolina
Processing can begin on the fifth Tuesday before Election Day; counting at 5:00pm on Election Day. EV begins the third Thursday before Election Day and ends the Saturday before Election Day.
Democratic Governor and Secretary of State. State deadline for certification by the State Board of Elections (3D, 2R) is Nov 26.
Pennsylvania
Processing and counting begin at 7:00am on Election Day. No EV in person.
Democratic Governor; appointed Secretary of State. State deadline for certification by the SOS and Governor is Nov 25.
Wisconsin
Processing and counting begin when polls open on Election Day. In-person absentee voting begins 14 days before Election Day and ends the Sunday before Election Day.
Democratic Governor; Wisconsin Elections Commission is evenly divided with nonpartisan clerk. State deadline for certification by the Wisconsin Elections Commission Chair is Dec 1.
Want to learn more? Join us for a conversation featuring donor advisors and democracy funding experts Jason Berkenfeld, Alexandra Acker-Lyons, and election law expert Prof. Sarah Gonski on Thursday, Oct. 24th at 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT. We will discuss last mile needs, what it will take to secure the vote, and how we can put our democracy on more stable footing for the long haul. Registration is required. Please RSVP here.
Calendar of Key Dates
We believe we will know results from NV and WI early on Wednesday, Nov. 6. Many states including the battleground states of AZ, GA, MI, and NC will follow. PA will take longer, likely 3-4 days.
Dec 11: Certificates of ascertainment due (ie, Governors affirm winner of vote in their state and confirm slates of electors). Also called the safe harbor deadline.
Dec 17: Electoral College convenes
Jan 6: Electoral College votes are confirmed by Congress
Jan 20: Inauguration Day
Volunteer the last few weeks
Heading to a swing state for a day, a weekend, or a few weeks is the single most impactful activity you can do. Knocking doors and making phone calls are the most important activities -- that personal touch really matters, especially for voters who are deciding who to vote for and whether to vote at all. (And we’re out of time for postcards and letters but you can still post and repost content on social media.)
So, to head to a state for the Harris-Walz campaign, complete this interest form. A screener will interview you, gather your interests/political experiences, get details about your preferred state, etc. Within about 24-48 hours, the team on the ground in the state(s) you've identified will be in touch with next steps. (Note that PA is being inundated with volunteers so try to go elsewhere if you’re not in the immediate area.) If you know which state you want to go to, just call the state party and ask for the volunteer coordinator; many states including CA, NY, and other blue states have important congressional and other down-ballot races.
What I Consume
I read and listen to a lot of information. Like, a lot. Below is my annual list with the most timely/informative in bold. I also check Political Wire multiple times per day.
Tipsheets / media newsletters
Politico | Playbook AM, Politico Nightly, West Wing Playbook, Women Rule
Punchbowl News AM & PM
Meet the Press | First Read
Axios AM & PM
Hotline’s Wake Up Call
Decision Desk HQ
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Semafor Principals
NOTUS Newsletter
The Cook Political Report (paid subscription)
Inside Elections (paid subscription)
Puck | The Daily Courant (paid subscription)
The 19th Weekly
Other newsletters
Hacks on Tap
Data for Progress
Bolts Mag
Blue Tent
Common Cause’s Gerrymander Gazette
Democracy Docket
Democracy Labs
The 19th Weekly
The Research Collaborative
Mike Podhorzer’s Defend Our Country Digest
Change Research | The Top Line
CAFE Insider
The Bulwark
Substacks
The DownBallot | Morning Digest
Dan Pfeiffer | The Message Box
Simon Rosenberg | Hopium Chronicles
Matthew Yglesias | Slow Boring
Jessica Valenti | Abortion Every Day
Taegan Goddard | Politics Extra
Bruce Mehlman | Navigating an Age of Disruption
Tara McGowan | COURIER
Podcasts
Political Gabfest
Pod Save America
Pod Save the World
Lovett or Leave It
Hysteria
Assembly Required
How to Win 2024
The Focus Group
Trial Balloon
Fast Politics
538 Politics
The Chuck Toddcast
Stay Tuned with Preet
The Insider Podcast
Hacks on Tap
The DownBallot
The Brown Girls Guide to Politics
Words to Win By
Strict Scrutiny
Sisters in Law
The Bulwark
White Picket Fence
Get More Smarter (CO)
Additionally, I try not to be on X much but it does remain the best platform for rapid response election news. There are several curated lists you can follow to keep your sanity:
I’ll likely send one more WTGN before Election Day -- what else do you want to know?
Give till it hurts! Go knock doors! Let’s do this!