RBG In Memorium
I have no words for the fact that Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Rosh Hashanah. “May her memory be a blessing” is so insufficient for the life she led. We need to take a moment to remember her and her legacy. But after that moment, we have to get to work. And there is a lot of work to do.
I see the consequences of her death in four parts:
Filling Ginsberg’s Seat. This is perhaps where I am most optimistic (maybe foolishly, I admit). Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) already said today that she will not support a vote. Sens. Grassley (R-IA), Romney (R-UT) and Collins (R-ME) have all said they would not support a vote before the election when asked as a hypothetical. Then it’s up to us to apply pressure to vulnerable Republicans up for re-election in swing states, namely Gardner (CO), Tillis (NC), and McSally (AZ). Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wasted no time in issuing a statement that says ““President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate.” This is the Garland rule, so enacted in 2016 when McConnell refused to allow a vote on President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee during the election season. But his caucus may say otherwise and we have to hold their feet to the fire and not cede one inch.
Implications for the Presidential Election. This just became a base election. And we -- and the Biden campaign -- were not prepared for that. Many of the Never Trump Republicans will go home. Conservatives have done a much better job of messaging to their base about the importance of the Supreme Court than we have and that message will resonate. Evangelicals and other voters who were unenthusiastic about voting for Trump just got enthused. We will have to spend tremendous time and money communicating to swing women voters that the future of Roe is indeed on the line (and this time we’re not crying wolf). And we will have to message to our base what is at stake and the long-term consequences of this election as well as spending more time and money talking about the mechanics of when, where, and how to vote. I always thought we’d come around to a base election eventually but this has made the need more stark and urgent. We may have never had a Democratic ticket with so much judicial experience -- Biden having served as Chair of the Judiciary Committee for eight years and Harris having served on the committee for two years, after serving as Attorney General of California. They understand, more than most, what is at stake.
Taking Back the Senate. This just became a lot harder. States like Kansas and Montana, where we were relying on split-ticket or crossover voters, may now return to their partisan corners. We will have to wait for the dust to settle to weigh the actual effect. And if we can successfully block a vote, there may be enough time to pivot back to other issues and win these reach seats.
Election-Related Court Decisions. I have spent the last few weeks re-reading books about the 2000 recount (namely, Jeffrey Toobin’s Too Close to Call and Jake Tapper’s Down & Dirty: The Plot to Steal the Presidency). As we all remember, the 2000 election was essentially decided by a 5-4 Supreme Court vote. This cycle, several cases surrounding the 2020 election, including one during the Wisconsin primary, have already been decided by the Court. If 2020 ends up in similar circumstances, we have lost a critical vote and a critical voice, meaning we are entirely dependent on lower court rulings and on Chief Justice Roberts to do the right thing.
There will be many more thoughts to come, from me and countless others, but as I reflect tonight I say a toast for RBG and a prayer for our country.