Where to Give Now: Sept 2020
We are in the home stretch, people! It’s GOTM time! Get Out The Money!
Make your giving decisions now — giving money in October is essentially useless, whether to a candidate or organization. Also budget for some recounts as well as the need for organizations to keep staff on through early 2021, whether to help pass the First 100 Days Agenda, work in state legislative sessions, or (spit three times, throw salt over shoulder) fight back against another Trump term.
Remember that there is no silver bullet. There’s not “one” organization that will get out the vote or “one” candidate likely flip the Senate. We are well-positioned to have many opportunities for victory. There is very little bad money; just good and better money, as you will see from my recommendations below. And for every c3 dollar you give, match it with c4 or candidate funds.
I want to plug two other ways to get involved and informed as a donor:
Blueprint by Swing Left is a political giving platform that enables you to invest in Democratic candidates and support non-partisan civic organizations working to expand the electorate, combat voter suppression, and increase voter turnout in presidential battleground states — all with a single donation. Each quarter, Blueprint recommends a portfolio of competitive races and proven civic organizations to ensure that every contribution goes where it's able to make the biggest impact at that point in the cycle. Since launching earlier this year, Blueprint has raised over $2 million for state legislative candidates, Senate candidates, and civic organizations. In order to pinpoint races where Democratic dollars could make a meaningful difference, the Blueprint team built a sophisticated return on investment model focused on identifying the most competitive, cost-effective races. Civic organizations included in Blueprint have met a set of peer-validated parameters and are evaluated on a robust set of criteria, with priority given to programs built for and with communities of color and young people.
The Next 50 works to make politics accessible to a new generation of political donors and candidates. Since February 2019, they have hosted 80+ events with 18 presidential candidates and dozens down ballot, fundraising $3.17M+ from 12,000+ people who are new to political giving. They recently launched The Next 50 Leadership Program with seven endorsements of young candidates; help them expand their pool! And you can join The Next 50 for a special event with former White House communications director and co-host of Pod Save America Dan Pfeiffer, along with other special guests on Monday, September 14th at 8:00pm EST.
Biden-Harris
We have a VP! And she’s awesome! And she’s helping to motivate young people and people of color to vote! And polling has shown that the race remains steady post- conventions, with Biden maintaining a consistent lead. As we constantly refresh FiveThirtyEight, I remind you not to freak out too much as the pollercoaster goes up and down and the race (likely) tightens.
But you should freak out a little as this election will decide the fate of the free world and democracy in America. So give more and do more. (More on both below.)
Election Month
I am re-posting this from the July memo so we all remember: In all the talk about voting by mail, what often gets lost is just how much longer it can take counties and states to count those votes. (This article in The Atlantic provides an excellent overview.) Some states, like New York, do not allow administrators to begin counting absentee ballots until polling locations close. This led to some 2020 primary elections taking over a month to be finalized. In Arizona in 2018, it took over a week for Kyrsten Sinema to be declared the winner in the US Senate race. Many states take up to 35 days to certify the election. Donald Trump is already using these delays to try to discredit the election.
We can help by providing accurate information to our friends and family. Start setting expectations about Election Month now. Note that every jurisdiction may have different timetables and rules (see: 2000, Florida).
Here are some helpful resources:
VoteAmerica is a 501c3, non-partisan organization with all the info you need
The non-partisan Election Protection coalition and 866-OUR-VOTE hotline is ready to answer questions
Democratic super lawyer Marc Elias’ Democracy Docket provides info about current voting-related lawsuits in non-legalese
The Brennan Center for Justice has lots of white papers filled with info about all things voting
Volunteer (or even get paid) to be a poll worker with Power to the Polls!
Also read up on the Florida 2000 recount with Jeffrey Toobin’s excellent book Too Close to Call. As much as we like to focus on the legal arguments and norms, ultimately elections are about politics and we need to play hardball. In 2000, we brought a knife to a gun fight and lost.
US Senate
The good news is we have 10 US Senate races we can flip. The bad news is that takes a lot of money. Democratic candidates and party committees continue to outraise their Republican counterparts, sometimes substantially. But the Republican SuperPACs and c4 organizations are outraising Democrats.
Here is a matrix of candidate and outside fundraising and spending. Note that the IE TV+ res column refers to my best guess of TV (including ads on services like Hulu) reservations based on public information; there is still time to re-allocate some of that money and it does not include $104m in Republican c4 funds. The IE Spend column uses FEC data as of September 2.
Apologies that this is too much data for one chart! You can view this database and more here.
A few things worth noting:
I have not included any incumbents as I believe those races are set. Peters in MI, Smith in MN, and Shaheen in NH are all likely to win and well-resourced. Sadly, I do not think Sen. Doug Jones (AL) will be able to pull off another win.
The Alaska Senate race has not yet come onto the national radar but the race is now tied and both sides are about to go in with significant money; look for those ratings to change very soon. This is the single cheapest Senate race we will have for a decade and everyone should go all in.
Significant money is being spent on Ossoff in GA-A and much of that subtlety helps Warnock in GA-B. I do not expect to see much spending on Warnock’s behalf until the runoff.
Similarly, the Louisiana Senate race is all about keeping incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy to under 50% (very doable with 13 candidates and recent polling shows him at 48%) and I do not expect to see significant spending on behalf of Adrian Perkins until the runoff.
The bottom line: Kelly (AZ), Hickenlooper (CO), Gideon (ME), Cunningham (NC), and McGrath (KY) are well-funded. Warnock and Perkins need moderate funding to get them over the finish line for the runoffs. Hegar (and McGrath) are tough to pull-off without a huge Biden margin.
Therefore, I recommend donating now to Gross (AK), Ossoff (GA), Greenfield (IA), Bollier (KS), Bullock (MT), and Harrison (SC).
Donate to any or all targeted Senate candidates: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/aladvising.senate.
Funding Gaps
We are rapidly approaching the deadline for giving c3 meaningful c3 money. I highly recommend moving all c3 funds by September 11.
America Votes, working with hundreds of national and state partners, is coordinating a massive Vote-by-Mail (VBM) enrollment, education, and chase program targeting 21 million voters across 10 states. They also coordinate early vote and get out the vote programs for key constituencies in battleground states. Gaps vary by state but total over $4 million on the 501c3 side (primarily for VBM enrollment) and $40 million on the 501c4 side. This is a critical and timely investment to ensure progressive voters receive information from trusted messengers about where, how, and why to vote. For more information contact Evan Kost at ekost@americavotes.org.
Additional 501c3 options:
VoteAmerica is also working on VBM enrollment via digital and SMS tools, focusing on low and mid-propensity voters, primarily young people and people of color.
The Election Protection coalition and 866-OUR-VOTE hotline, housed at the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, provides real-time assistance to voters with questions about the voting process. They also leverage the resources of national law firms to bring voting-related litigation.
Florida Rights Restoration Coalition (FRRC) is working to bring returning citizens who had previously been denied their right to vote because of a felony conviction back into the political process. It was founded by the inspiring Desmond Meade, who was able to vote for the first time in 25 years during the August primary elections. They also help pay fees for returning citizens who, due to numerous court battles, must pay any remaining legal fees before they can register to vote. They are targeting 1.1 million Black & Latinx voters.
The Pennsylvania Voter Project is dedicated to ensuring all Pennsylvania voters are educated about the ways they can cast a ballot in a safe, secure, and convenient way. This is the first election cycle for with widespread vote by mail in Pennsylvania and many voters need information about where and how to vote.
Wisconsin Voices works with over 65 state and local organizations with a focus on people of color, people under 30, unmarried women, and people with low incomes. They work on voter registration, education, and mobilization including through an innovative voter registration and engagement app.
Additional 501c4 options:
Alliance for Youth Action is the largest grassroots youth-focused organization in the country. They work in 20 states with an emphasis on turning out young voters. Over the past 15 years, its affiliates have led cutting-edge youth turnout tactics. They also founded National Voter Registration Day, invented automatic voter registration, and lead voter modernization efforts in many states. They create state-specific voter guides and also run digital and mail persuasion programs in key states. (Disclosure: I am a proud Board member.)
Collective PAC focuses on Black candidates and Black voters. Their new initiative called The Southern Strategy focuses on Black US Senate candidates as well as Black GOTV efforts through digital and radio ads to supplement the existing direct voter contact work.
Deliver My Vote has a $2.4 million budget gap for programs in WI, MI, and PA, targeting voters most likely to sign-up to vote at home. (They work in concert with America Votes and others.) They leverage multiple cycles of expertise to precisely target voters with the right tactic, message, and messenger to allow voters to take control of the often-confusing voting process. (Disclosure: I am a proud Board member.)
Volunteering
There are many ways to volunteer for campaigns or organizations. Even just sharing pro-Biden or pro-Democrat posts on social media (especially Facebook, as that is where most voters get their news) is extremely helpful. Don’t bother getting into a debate but also posting “de-bunking” or fact check stories and memes is also very helpful.
In the COVID environment, traditional door-to-door canvassing is extremely limited. This makes phone calls, text messages, hand-written letters or postcards, and peer-to- peer or friend-to-friend social media outreach even more important. Every bit helps.
And don’t be too nervous about contacting voters -- most of the time, you are calling likely Democrats and are unlikely to encounter hostile Trump voters.
Here are a few options:
Vote Forward’s The Big Send aims to send 10 million letters to Democratic- leaning voters who are less likely to vote without additional motivation. You simply download a list of names and addresses and a template letter with some space for personalization. This is fun to do with younger kids or a group of friends.
Crooked Media (the Pod Save America guys) have a wonderful program called Adopt A State where you can sign up to help in one of the top six battleground states. They will train you on everything you need to know!
You can also volunteer directly for the Biden-Harris campaign by making phone calls or sending text messages. This also comes with training.
Finally, if there is a candidate you just love, whether in your home state or across the country, call their campaign and see what you can do remotely. Most campaigns, especially those further down the ballot or with a little less attention, would be happy to accommodate remote volunteers.
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Please let me know what would be helpful in forthcoming memos before the election! alexandra@ALadvising.com
Wear a mask. Vote for Biden.