Where to Give Now: Oct 2020
This is it. Our willingness to donate again and again is the reason why Democrats are heavily favored to keep the House and are now favored to win the Senate -- something prognosticators would have laughed at a year ago. (It has the added bonus of pissing off Mitch McConnell.) And it’s a big part of why Joe Biden is competitive in states like Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. Trump has gone dark in crucial Midwestern battleground states amid reports that his campaign is nearly broke. So, dig deep.
And yes, there are targeted places where last-minute money still helps, primarily in down-ballot races. Some key US Senate races can also use additional funds.
One final note: we all hate money in politics and our crazy campaign finance system. We spent a record $5.7 billion on the 2018 elections. But we spent $9 billion on Halloween that year. So while COVID has made trick or treating all but impossible, put your candy budget to good use saving democracy.
US Senate
I have been a broken record for over a year: we need to expand the Senate map and give Democrats as many paths to 50+ seats as possible. There are several races with excellent candidates popping at just the right time, notably Alaska and South Carolina. Mike Espy in Mississippi and MJ Hegar in Texas have closed both polling and fundraising gaps to make seemingly long-shot races truly competitive; both have new independent expenditures boosting their races.
Jon Ossoff (GA-A), MJ Hegar (TX), Al Gross (AK), Barbara Bollier (KS), Raphael Warnock (GA-B), Mike Espy (MS) and Adrian Perkins (LA) can put additional funding to good use. Ossoff and Hegar, in particular, are running in very expensive states and need funding to finish media buys. Gross and Bollier are running in inexpensive states and can absorb additional funds for mail and radio. Warnock and Perkins will face runoff elections (yes, Louisiana is very, very likely to go to a runoff) in the weeks immediately after November 3 and need to build their war chests now. If Biden’s lead holds, ALL of these races are winnable and we need to put all our chips on the table.
Donate to all or some: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/aladvising.senate
If you are passionate about a specific race or state and want to move additional c4 or SuperPAC funds, please feel free to email me, as I have been helping direct funds to many independent expenditures and can connect you to the right entities.
State Supreme Court
As the federal judiciary shifts to the right due to court packing by Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump, state courts become even more important. A huge shout out to my friend and colleague Heather Smith and her team for compiling the information below.
The makeup of State Supreme Courts is especially critical now, as they will play a key role in redistricting after the 2020 census and will likely adjudicate contested 2020 election procedures and results. Michigan, Ohio, and North Carolina represent the most important 2020 State Supreme Court elections. In Michigan and Ohio, there is an opportunity to win Democratic majorities, and in North Carolina there is a real need to protect the newly-won Democratic majority, currently under attack.
You can give to the slate of six crucial State Supreme Court candidates here. Donation limits range from $3,800 to $7,150.
If you can donate even more, the Ohio State Democratic Party and the Michigan State Democratic Party each need about $400k to do a final round of mail and paid media targeting likely Democratic voters, ensuring that our voters know which candidates are the Democrats (as they run on the non-partisan portion of the ballot and are frequently overlooked by voters). There is also a down ballot fund at the NC Democratic Party working to prevent drop off for both state legislative and state supreme court races.
MI Democratic Party Supreme Court Fund (no contribution limits)
OH Democratic Party Supreme Court Fund (contribution limit: $39,877)
NC Democratic Party down ballot fund (no contribution limits)
Other Down-Ballot
Once again, I highly recommend donating to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee as the “easy button” for supporting critical down-ballot races. We must flip chambers in key states ahead of redistricting and while numerous organizations are doing good work with various strategies, the DLCC is closest to the ground and able to coordinate directly with the candidates and caucuses, directing funds to where they are most needed. The RSLC outraised the DLCC 2:1 last quarter; Republicans have always prioritized down-ballot races more than Democrats and they know they need to hold on to power in the states if they lose the White House and Congress.
As DLCC Executive Director Jessica Post frequently points out, we only need *48* seats to flip *10* state houses red to blue. You can give directly to those 48 candidates here.
And one more critical down-ballot race: the Texas Railroad Commission (h/t to Seth Beer for this one!). As the mom of a four-year-old, I love trains by default. But this is actually a race about climate change. The oil and gas industry have had an unchecked, rubber stamp on the amount of methane they are allowed to burn off of their wells and into our atmosphere -- and methane is 84 times more potent and harmful than carbon. The Railroad Commission is a three person entity that requires unanimous consent in order to pass anything. If we are able to reign in Texas oil companies' reckless methane burnoff, we can significantly cut United States emissions. Commission candidate Chrysta Castaneda can make the difference. A former attorney for oil and gas magnate T. Boone Pickens, she knows the ins and outs of the industry. She is also the best chance we have at winning a statewide office in Texas since 1994. The New Republic did a great write up about the importance of this race. Chrysta can accept unlimited donations and you can donate here.
Get Out The Vote
America Votes is filling gaps in crucial states across the country for early voting and vote by mail, ballot curing, voter education, and election protection. You can earmark for a specific state. (501c4)
Be A Hero (health care activist Ady Barkan’s SuperPAC) is running highly effective ads in key Senate races. We know health care is the top issue for most voters and their ads are moving the needle overall (+5.6%), with Republicans (+6.9%), non-college voters (+5.8%), and Trump voters (+8.6%).
Count Every Vote is a non-partisan campaign dedicated to defending the integrity of our elections and ensuring that every American’s vote is counted this November. They are running ads in battleground states to counter messages undermining democracy and to urge patience as we count every vote. (501c3)
Pizza to the Polls helps send -- you guessed it -- pizza and other food to voters waiting in long lines during early voting and on Election Day. (501c4 but can accept 501c3 donations as well)
Resources
AL Advising 2020 Candidate Tracking Database (with all ratings, updated fundraising, and other key information)
AL Advising Election 2020 Twitter list (top politicos, political reporters, prognosticators, party committees, and activists -- additional suggestions welcome)
General
What’s On The Ballot (Guide to Tracking State and Local Elections)
FiveThirtyEight: Election Forecast
FiveThirtyEight: Latest Polls
270toWin electoral college map
The Cook Political Report Demographic Swingometer
Early Voting
TargetSmart: National 2020 General Election Early & Absentee Vote Report
US Elections Project: 2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics
National Conference of State Legislatures: When Absentee/Mail Ballot Processing and Counting Can Begin
The New York Times: How Quickly Will Your Absentee Vote Be Counted? A State-by-State Timeline
Counting can begin (only battleground presidential and Senate states included):
Before Election Day: AZ, CO, FL, IA, MT, NE, NC (varies from 10/12-11/2; in most states processing starts earlier)
On Election Day: KY, MI, MO, NV, PA, SC, TX, WI
Not specified/discretion: KS, LA, OH
After polls close: AL, AK, CA, ME, NH
Volunteer!
Way to Win put together this amazing matrix of how to volunteer for top grassroots organizations in key states.
Phone and text bank for Biden-Harris (some limited canvassing too)
Adopt a swing state with Crooked Media, Swing Left, or Indivisible
Wear a mask. Vote for Biden-Harris.