Where To Give Now | Sept 3, 2024
Labor Day is the unofficial kickoff of campaign season. While Election Day is 61 days away, absentee ballots will be mailed out in North Carolina THIS Friday, 9/6, and early voting starts in Pennsylvania on 9/16. We cannot let our foot off the gas. This will be a very close election at the top of the ticket and down the ballot.
Annual polling reminder: Margin of error is real. Every battleground state is within the margin of error. They will all be close. Stop refreshing FiveThirtyEight and get to work.
Scroll down for how to help key candidates, battleground state GOTV efforts, and election administration and election protection efforts.
Harris-Walz
Yes, you should continue to give to Harris-Walz if you have not already maxed for the general election. Note that merch like lawn signs and t-shirts count against your max.
1. The maximum individual contribution is $3,300 for the general election. You can donate here.
2. If you give over $3,300, the next $41,300 of your contribution goes to the DNC General Fund. The maximum individual contribution to the DNC General Fund is $41,300/year.
3. If you want to give more to Harris-Walz and/or become a raiser, please email me directly.
US Senate
Sen. Tester is perhaps the only candidate in the country who did not benefit from a switch at the top of the ticket; polls show his opponent, Tim Sheehy, starting to break out. This means we need to look further afield to get to 50 seats with Florida, Nebraska, and Texas as options.
Tier 1 Protects
This unusual combination of states will likely determine control of the Senate.
MD: Angela Alsobrooks vs. Larry Hogan. Yes, deep blue Maryland is top target and recent polls show this race is tied. Alsobrooks remains unknown to large swaths of the electorate while former Gov. Hogan retains sky-high approval ratings. Alsobrooks needs resources to compete in the expensive DC and Baltimore media markets. Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has named Maryland as one of his top races.
MT: Sen. Jon Tester vs. Tim Sheehy. Although Sen. Tester has a record of outperforming other Democrats, convincing thousands of Trump voters to back him this time around is proving to be more of a challenge. Polls show Sheehy up by as much as seven points. But if anyone can pull off an upset, it’s Tester. An abortion rights ballot measure may also help turnout.
OH: Sen. Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno. Similar to Tester, Brown must overcome a deficit at the top of the ticket to win. However, Brown does not have to convince as many ticket-splitters and may benefit from increased enthusiasm from Black and young voters.
Tier 2 Protects
Democrats should win all of these seats but as all are also presidential battleground states, they are expensive and impacted by nuances at the top of the ticket.
AZ: Rep. Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake. As a Latino veteran, Gallego is an ideal candidate in the mold of Sens. John McCain and Mark Kelly. He has consistently been polling outside the margin of error against election-denier Lake. Gallego will also help boost Harris and candidates down-ballot and the abortion rights ballot measure will help with turnout.
MI: Rep. Elissa Slotkin vs. Rep. Mike Rogers. Michigan has been trending blue but remains a toss-up. Neither Slotkin nor Rogers have run statewide before and have to introduce themselves to millions of voters. This race will be closely tied to the presidential election.
NV: Sen. Jacky Rosen vs. Sam Brown. This race is also being underestimated, as recent polls have shown Rosen winning outside the margin of error. Nevada has a high proportion of non-college educated voters as well as a transient population who are unfamiliar with Sen, Rosen. Harris’ tightening margin in the state and the abortion rights ballot measure will help boost turnout.
PA: Sen. Bob Casey vs. David McCormick. Casey is political royalty and McCormick suffers from many of the same carpetbagger, rich guy issues that plagued Dr. Oz last cycle.
WI: Sen. Tammy Baldwin vs. Eric Hovde. Sen. Baldwin outperforms other in-state Democrats and Hovde has been hit for being a carpetbagger as well as out-of-touch statements on whether seniors in nursing homes should be allowed to vote and accusing young people of being lazy. But a two-point win is a blowout in WI and this race will continue to be close.
Potential Flips
All of these races are currently within the margin of error but closing the last few points in red-leaning states is tough and expensive.
FL: Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell vs. Sen. Rick Scott. Scott is not well-liked and put out a plan calling for cuts to Social Security. However, he is a self-funder and can literally write a check for whatever amount is needed to win. Mucarsel-Powell has a great personal story but is not well-known and has lackluster fundraising to compete in such an expensive state. The abortion ballot measure and potential engagement by the Harris campaign could make this a closer race.
NE: Independent Dan Osborn vs. Sen. Deb Fischer. There is a unique opportunity to elect a true independent who would not caucus with either party. Osborn is pro-democracy and pro-choice. The competitive NE-2 race for the House and its electoral college vote (NE splits its votes) plus native son Tim Walz on the ticket makes this a potential flip.
TX: Rep. Colin Allred vs. Sen. Ted Cruz. Cruz is deeply unpopular in-state and Allred has a great bio for the state. Allred is also a robust fundraiser who has been outspending Cruz 10:1 in recent weeks.
All of the candidates below are worthy of investment and still need money. But at this moment, I recommend giving to Angela Alsobrooks and adopting a potential flip state.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/senate2024
US House
It is easier (although less sexy) to keep an incumbent than flip a seat. We need to ensure all of our incumbents are well-funded and then focus on the narrow map of flips. If you live in CA or NY, by all means, give to your in-state candidates. But I am most worried about incumbents and candidates outside of those states and in non-battleground states, particularly first-term incumbents, highlighted below. Again, it is not a given that we will take back the House; we need to work for it.
Toss-up Incumbents
AK AL, Mary Peltola
CO 8, Yadira Caraveo
ME 2, Jared Golden
NM 2, Gabe Vasquez
NC 1, Don Davis
OH 9, Marcy Kaptur
OH 13, Emilia Sykes
PA 7, Susan Wild
PA 8, Matt Cartwright
WA 3, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Competitive Open Seats
CA 47, Dave Min
MI 7, Curtis Hertel
MI 8, Kristen McDonald Rivet
VA 7, Eugene Vindman
Toss-up Challengers
AZ 1, Amish Shah
AZ 6, Kirsten Engel
CA 13, Adam Gray
CA 22, Rudy Salas
CA 27, George Whitesides
CA 41, Will Rollins
NY 4, Laura Gillen
NY 17, Mondaire Jones
NY 19, Josh Riley
NY 22, John Mannion
OR 5, Janelle Bynum
Lean R Challengers
CA 45, Derek Tran
IA 3, Lanon Baccam
MI 10, Carl Marlinga
MT 1, Monica Tranel
NE 2, Tony Vargas
NJ 7, Sue Altman
VA 2, Missy Cotter Smasal
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/wtgn9324
Non-Federal
Governor
NH: winner of 9/13 primary (max $5,000); Toss-up. Joyce Craig and Cinde Warmington are competing in the Democratic primary; the winner will likely face former Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Both chambers are also up and we could flip all three for a trifecta. The primary winner will need an immediate infusion of funds to be competitive in November.
NC: AG Josh Stein (max $6,400); Lean D. Stein is polling outside the margin of error due to his opponent, Mark Robinson, an extreme MAGA supporter.
Other Statewide
NC Lt Gov: Rachel Hunt (max $6,400)
NC AG: Rep. Jeff Jackson (max $6,400)
PA AG: Eugene DePasquale (unlimited)
State Supreme Court
KY: Elect Pamela Goodwine to a district seat that includes Lexington (max $2,100)
MI: Retain Kyra Harris Bolden and elect Kimberly Ann Thomas (max $3,400 each)
MT: Elect Jerry Lynch as Chief Justice and elect Kathy Bidegaray (max $1,400 each)
OH: Retain Michael Donnelly, retain Melody Stewart, and elect Lisa Forbes (max $3,600 each)
NC: Elect Allison Riggs (max $5,100)
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2024govs (includes all of the above except KY and MT; see links in names)
State Legislative Races
A more detailed list of giving to key state legislative races will be coming soon.
In the meantime, check out Women in Democracy (WIND) -- an effort to support pro-democracy champions in state legislative chambers across the country. A little goes a long way for these races; donate here https://candidates.opendemocracypac.com/page/WIND.
Battleground State Investments
The presidential map is seven states, broken down into the Blue Wall (MI, PA, WI) and Sun Belt (AZ, GA, NV, NC) plus NE-2. There is large overlap with other targeted races within those states, what is known as “nested” races. While other states (FL, MT, OH, etc) are worthy of investment for down-ballot races, large gaps remain in the critical battleground states.
Funding, especially 501c3 funds, need to move as quickly as possible to build out remaining programs. But 501c4 and PAC funds are most needed this close to the election. Now is not the time to worry about tax deductions but empty that DAF if you can.
Building for Democracy is a multi-state, multi-entity giving vehicle supported by four major donor alliances. They are coordinating giving priorities in key states via the state donor tables and groups on the ground. They can accept 501c3, 501c4, and, in some states, PAC funds. In-state gaps are tracked regularly to maximize efficiency and fund the most urgent needs. BFD is purposefully not public-facing. The nine state budget gaps are $19.4 million c3 and $30.8 million c4; Arizona and Georgia, having been lower priorities for much of the cycle, have the largest current gaps. For more information, email Caitlin Blair Fessler at caitlin@cbfstrategies.com.
America Votes coordinates national and state-based independent-side field, digital, and other paid communications across organizations like Planned Parenthood and League of Conservation Voters as well as in-state partners. They are the “easy button” for 501c4, 527, and SuperPAC giving. The remaining gap through September is $52.4 million. For more information, email Kellie Dupree at kdupree@americavotes.org.
Election Administration and Election Protection
Massive, coordinated, year-round efforts to safeguard our elections and election officials have been underway for years. But large gaps remain in ensuring jurisdictions have the funds they need to conduct elections safely, communicate with voters, and coordinate across municipalities, counties, and states.
Resilient Elections Network (Center for Secure & Modern Elections, Center for Tech & Civic Life, and Institute for Responsive Government) coordinates election administration work in all 50 states. REN is the hub for ensuring election jurisdictions have the resources they need, from funding to technical assistance to rapid response communications. The network-wide budget gaps are $65.6 million c3 and $10 million c4. Contact Janae Dasef at janae@resilientelectionsnetwork.org for more information.
Trusted Elections Fund is a pooled fund to support grassroots organizations in key states working to safeguard our elections. Many of these organizations are simultaneously working to get out the vote and protect the elections while planning for post-election scenarios, requiring additional resources for staff and training. Contact Jenny Flanagan at jflanagan@trusted-elections.org for more information.
Guardian Fund is a pooled donor fund (fiscally sponsored by Policy Impact) that invests in safety and security infrastructure for pro-democracy civil society organizations and actors who have come under threat for their engagement in efforts to protect the norms, values, and/or institutions essential to a functioning democracy. They provide free or low-cost resources including physical security, cybersecurity, legal support, crisis communications, threat monitoring and analysis, mental health and wellness, and employment and financial support. The current gap is $5.6 million c3. Contact Carly Straus Chan at carly@thirdplateau.com for more information.
The next memo will include more details on state legislative races, the abortion rights ballot measures, where I get my news, and how to volunteer. What else do you want to know about?