Where to Give Now: February 2020
The presidential election is a bit of a mess, huh? President Trump has been, er, not convicted (let’s not say acquitted) and appears to be hatching more crimes in retribution. He is raising record amounts of money and targeting Democratic base voters with digital ads.
Then there are the Democrats. The good news is, voters are voting! And those votes being counted. (Definitely. Correctly. Maybe.) After the remaining early states vote, we may have more clarity and will definitely have a better sense after the vast majority of voters cast a ballot in March. That gives us enough time to come together and focus our energy on Trump. Yes, no one may reach a majority of delegates. But we will likely have a delegate leader or clear front-runner and then the deal-making begins.
If you are passionate about specific candidates, even if they are not considered viable by the conventional wisdom prognosticators, give more.
In the meantime, it’s time to drill down on flipping the US Senate and picking up additional seats to strengthen our majority in the US House.
US Senate
Democrats are defending 12 seats; Republicans are defending 22. While this is a much better map than 2018, most states are deep red or deep blue, meaning there will be few competitive races. We need to flip three seats to tie and four seats for control of the chamber, assuming we hold all incumbents. Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama has the toughest re-election; his courageous vote this week to convict President Trump didn’t help but was undeniably the right thing to do. Sens. Gary Peters in Michigan, Tina Smith in Minnesota, and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire are all running in targeted presidential states and need resources.
Things are still in flux in many top races. There are primaries in Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, although John Hickenlooper, Theresa Greenfield, Sara Gideon, and Cal Cunningham, respectively, all have the endorsement of the DSCC and are considered the front-runners. Democrats in Georgia are figuring out the strongest ticket for the two races there; Rev. Raphael Warnock is running in the special election and has been endorsed by the DSCC and there will be a primary in the “regular” election on May 19 and a runoff on July 21. The Texas primary (March 3) will likely go to a runoff on May 26. Be prepared to support the eventual winner in these races as soon as the races are called!
I want to make a plug for some of the long shot races; I call them the Moneyball states. The 2020 elections are our last chance to build a strong Senate majority for a decade; 51 seats is not enough. We don’t know what the political environment will look like in November and we need to be in a position to play offense. Most of these states are inexpensive and have an unusual political history that suggests an upset win is not out of the realm of possibility. Note that Kentucky is not included here because Amy McGrath has plenty of money!
First, Alaska, which has a history of independent candidates and odd politics. Independent Alan (Al) Gross is running against first-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, who won by only 6,014 votes (0.77%) in 2014. Trump only took 51.3% of the vote. The small number of votes needed to win Alaska — likely less than 150,000 -- combined with the heavy concentration of votes in a few metropolitan areas, lend themselves to inexpensive, efficient investments.
In Kansas, the “Brownback Blowback” began in the 2016 election and continues. In 2018, Democrat Laura Kelly won the governor’s seat and Sharice Davids flipped a competitive US House seat. Longtime incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts is not seeking re-election in 2020 and an open seat is the best opportunity to flip a seat. Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach lost the gubernatorial election in 2018 and has declared his candidacy; despite dismal approval numbers with the general electorate, he is still the favorite to win the GOP primary. The Democratic candidate is Barbara Bollier, a doctor and a current state Senator who switched parties to become a Democrat in December 2018. This is my sleeper race of the cycle.
Don’t rule out Montana. Steve Bullock has until March 9 to change his mind and rest, assured, arms are being twisted. Republican Sen. Steve Daines lucked into the seat in 2014, facing a weak opponent in a wave GOP year. While Daines is hard to go after alone, Greg Gianforte, the Gubernatorial candidate, is flawed and linking two millionaires who are friends will improve the landscape. Montana has a history of close elections and ticket splitting, so it may be competitive regardless of whether Gov. Bullock decides to run.
Finally, South Carolina. Lindsey Graham is seeking a fourth term in a state Trump carried with just 54% of the vote. Jaime Harrison, the former chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party and associate chair of the DNC, is among several progressives running. The state is 27% African American and a competitive presidential primary will mean a surge in new registrations and an increase in organizing talent.
If you want more information on the Moneyball races, please email alexandra@ALadvising.org as some colleagues and I have a detailed plan.
Incumbents to Protect:
Doug Jones (AL)
Gary Peters (MI)
Tina Smith (MN)
Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
Most Flippable Five:
CO (John Hickenlooper)
AZ (Mark Kelly)
ME (Sara Gideon)
NC (Cal Cunningham)
IA (Theresa Greenfield)
To Be Determined:
Georgia “regular” election
Texas
Moneyball:
AK (Al Gross)
KS (Barbara Bollier)
MT (To Be Determined)
SC (Jaime Harrison)
I recommend donating to all of the incumbents and flippable five as well as at least one of the Moneyball races. Donate to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/aladvising.senate.
US House
We are currently tracking 109 House districts. This includes any race listed as Toss-up, Lean/Tilt, or Likely D/R by The Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Politico, and Inside Politics; we will add Daily Kos, FiveThirtyEight, and others as they become available later in the cycle. Of those, 20 are rated a Toss-up by at least one prognosticator and 15 of the Toss-ups have a first-term Democratic incumbent. We cannot forget about these vulnerable House members — the House remains our last line of defense against a possible second Trump term and a US Senate under the grip of Mitch McConnell.
The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents include:
TJ Cox (CA-21)
Gil Cisneros (CA-39)
Lucy McBath (GA-6)
Abby Finkenauer (IA-1)
Cindy Axne (IA-3)
Lauren Underwood (IL-14)
Jared Golden (ME-2)
Elissa Slotkin (MI-8)
Collin Peterson (MN-7)
Andy Kim (NJ-3)
Tom Malinowski (NJ-7)
Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2)
Max Rose (NY-11)
Antonio Delgado (NY-19)
Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)
Kendra Horn (OK-5)
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (TX-7)
Joe Cunningham (SC-1)
Elaine Luria (VA-2)
Abigail Spanberger (VA-7)
Ben McAdams (UT-4)
We must also protect the open CA-25 seat, vacated by Katie Hill, where Democrat Christy Smith is running simultaneously in the special election and primary for the “top two” general election. Additionally, Democrat Dave Loebsack is retiring in IA-2; Democrat Rita Hart is running in this Toss-up seat.
There are also 21 GOP House retirements, putting several new districts in play. And the new North Carolina maps are likely to yield at least two new Democratic seats.
Potential flips include (Democratic candidate is listed only if no competitive primary):
CA-50 (Ammar Campa-Najjar)
GA-7
IL-13 (Betsy Dirksen Londrigan)
IN-5 (Christina Hale)
MI-3
MI-6 (Jon Hoadley)
MN-1 (Dan Feehan)
NY-2 (Jackie Gordon)
NY-24
NY-27
OH-1
PA-1 (Debbie Wachspress)
PA-10 (Tom Brier)
TX-10
TX-21 (Wendy Davis)
TX-22 (Sri Preston Kulkarni)
TX-23 (Gina Ortiz Jones)
TX-24 (Kim Olson)
TX-27
TX-31
I also encourage donations for Marie Newman (IL-3) and Jessica Cisneros (TX-28), who are challenging anti-choice male incumbents in Democratic primaries.
As filing deadlines and primaries occur, the House map will become more clear. In the meantime, I recommend donating the maximum ($2,800) or $1,000 to as many candidates as possible or picking a few of your favorites. Donate to all or some: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/aladvising.house